The story yesterday was all about the weakness of the dollar – and the surging pound. As a result we have seen all major FX pairs strengthen against the USD, and are currently trading at their weekly ranges, the morning video will be a little longer than usual as we have a look at all the majors pairs and the possible opportunities today.
Dean's Daily FX Update – 18 January 2017
In the Zone
- All Pairs are in technical range
Noteworthy News
- A large part of the USD weakness yesterday was sparked by a Donald Trump interview suggesting he would prefer a weaker dollar. How he expects to implement his ambitious infrastructure with the USD not getting stronger is confusing. Trump is starting to become a talking contradiction.
Recap
On the back of PM Teresa May speech yesterday and the outlining of a 12 point plan for a hard exit, cable experienced its largest one day move since 1998 as it strengthened by close on 3% – 400 pips in a single day! It broke through the all major resistance levels, Fib levels and MA levels before price found resistance at 1.2415. After such a deep move, the GBPUSD has run out of steam and one would expect the pair to give some of those gains back today. Despite all these moves I am still sitting this pair out, we still have a long process in Brexit and the UK would be foolish if they think the EU will roll over on this – there is too much volatility in the offering.
After Donald Trump was elected the next US President, the USDJPY felt the brunt of the move with the pair strengthening by 1,800 pips in a 6 week period. That is a deep move and the market continued to look for the top, for those of you that caught the trend – this pair has now recovered over 600 pips since early January. We finally broke below 113.75, I have no doubt that we will test that level to see if support has changed polarity and become resistance – if it does find resistance there then the next level comes in at 112.00. Today could be a key trading day for the JPY.
The USDCAD also sits at key levels today with those levels sitting at 1.3075 and 1.3025 – a break above 1.3075 will see the pair start to target 1.3150 in no time. There is a lot of event risk in the CAD today so we could see this pair tread water.
The real question in trading today will be – can the USD pick itself off the canvas and stage a fight back?
Daily Ranges 18/01/2017
Majors
EURUSD
Resistance 1.0700 – 1.0714
Support 1.0625 – 1.0605
GBPUSD
Resistance 1.2375 – 1.2400
Support 1.2178 – 1.2150
AUDUSD
Resistance 0.7550 – 0.7560
Support 0.7490 – 0.7476
NZDUSD
Resistance 0.7200 – 0.7210
Support 0.7130 – 0.7120
USDCAD
Resistance 1.3120 – 1.3150
Support 1.3050 – 1.3030
USDJPY
Resistance 113.75 – 114.00
Support 112.70 – 112.40
USDCHF
Resistance 1.0080 – 1.0100
Support 1.0020 – 1.0000
Rand
USDZAR
Resistance 13.6140 – 13.6470
Support 13.4560 – 13.4095
EURZAR
Resistance 14.5000 – 14.5530
Support 14.3890 – 14.3550
GBPZAR
Resistance 16.7635 – 16.8200
Support 16.4390 – 16.3824
Minors
AUDCAD
Resistance 0.9866 – 0.9880
Support 0.9820 – 0.9805
AUDJPY
Resistance 85.65 – 85.80
Support 85.03 – 84.90
EURCHF
Resistance 1.0730 – 1.0740
Support 1.0710 – 1.0700
EURGBP
Resistance 0.8750 – 0.8772
Support 0.8630 – 0.8600
EURJPY
Resistance 121.20 – 121.33
Support 120.60 – 120.19
GBPJPY
Resistance 140.90 – 141.70
Support 137.88 – 137.00
GBPCAD
Resistance 1.6135 – 1.6190
Support 1.5930 – 1.5900
GBPCHF
Resistance 1.2398 – 1.2437
Support 1.2256 – 1.2240
Indices
DE30
Resistance 11580 – 11605
Support 11500 – 11470
UK100
Resistance 7290 – 7310
Support 7210 – 7180
US500
Resistance 2270 – 2300
Support 2260 – 2220
US30
Resistance 19900 – 19950
Support 19800 – 19600
SA40
Resistance 46800 – 47000
Support 46000 – 45800
Commodities
BRENT
Resistance 56.40 – 56.70
Support 55.17 – 54.90
XAUUSD
Resistance 1212.09 – 1220.00
Support 1195.00 – 1190.20
XAGUSD
Resistance 17.10 – 17.30
Support 16.80 – 16.60
Important Economic Data out today
- 11:30 GBP Average Earnings Index
- 11:30 GBP Claimant Count Change
- 15:30 USD CPI
- 17:00 CAD BOC Monetary Policy Report
- 17:00 CAD BOC Rate Statement
- 17:00 CAD Overnight Rate
- 18:15 CAD BOC Press Conference
- 22:00 USD Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
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