Some big gaps on the open last night as Hilary was cleared of any wrong doing. She is now the clear favourite to enter the White House in a few days and we have seen some big moves. The Forex markets have reacted this morning and a boost for the dollar. A time to be cautious but there may be some pips out there.
Dean's Daily FX Update – 07 November 2016
In the Zone
- AUDUSD
- NZDUSD
Noteworthy News
- The FBI announced that it has cleared Hillary Clinton on her charges, this was the catalyst for a big Dollar push this morning. The reason being is that Clinton now becomes the firm odds on favourite. Watch the safe haven currencies (EUR, JPY and CHF) as I don’t believe the “fun and games are over yet.”
Recap
The week started with a little hint of trepidation, we are now officially in the last push of the election and traders would not have wanted any positions over the weekend for fear of opening gaps. Historically the market can be affected drastically by differing polls and also headlines, as was the case with the Hillary Clinton headline – we cover the effect of this more in the video.
The EURUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF all opened the market with some healthy gaps, normal market theory says that we will try and close those gaps and there will be a few brave souls that try, but these are not normal market conditions. These three pairs are the ones that will be most affected this week by the election, and will move on any headline and every poll reading. I am merely a spectator for the next 2 days, but even if I was trading, these are the ones I would not touch – too much volatility.
You will find that any news that Clinton holds the advantage will be “risk on” meaning that your commodity currencies will benefit as well as Emerging Market currencies (especially the Mexican Peso). The AUDUSD and the NZDUSD both popped up first thing this morning on the headlines, coincidently it popped into their weekly ranges and found resistance – but we cover this in the morning video.
The USDZAR had been relatively resilient, but watch the Gold price this morning – any retracement and it could affect the ZAR. It seems to me like there are bids forming and so I would be hesitant to take any shorts at these levels. I would prefer for levels closer to 13.75 – 13.80.
This morning also gave news of an earthquake in Oklahoma – this is a very big oil storage facility region for the US. Watch for any news of damage to the facility as this will back both the USDCAD and Oil prices.
All in all however, it looks as though the USD is going to attempt a rally after the moves last week, but trade cautiously – it could be a wild couple of days.
Daily FX Ranges
EURUSD
Resistance 1.1100 – 1.1120
Support 1.1080 – 1.1050
GBPUSD
Resistance 1.2507 – 1.2530
Support 1.2430 – 1.2398
AUDUSD
Resistance 0.7699 – 0.7735
Support 0.7650 – 0.7630
NZDUSD
Resistance 0.7320 – 0.7340
Support 0.7295 – 0.7280
USDCAD
Resistance 1.3440 – 1.3460
Support 1.3330 – 1.3292
USDJPY
Resistance 104.20 – 104.50
Support 103.20 – 103.00
USDCHF
Resistance 0.9750 – 0.9780
Support 0.9700 – 0.9670
USDZAR
Resistance 13.5975 – 13.7000
Support 13.4600 – 13.4400
Important Economic Data out today
- NONE
High Risk Investment Warning: Trading foreign exchange and/or contracts for difference on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss in excess of your deposited funds and therefore, you should not speculate with capital that you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to trade the products offered by BlackStone Futures you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin. BlackStone Futures provides general advice that does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. The content of this Website must not be construed as personal advice. BlackStone Futures recommends you seek advice from a separate financial advisor. Please take the time to read our Risk Disclosure Notice.
