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Yesterday in my mind was a big waste of time, the day centred on the healthcare vote in the US and this focus killed the volatility in the market. The market took a wait and see approach to this and by time the White House let us know that the vote would now only happen on Friday, the market was for the most part done for the day.
Dean's Daily FX Update – 24 March 2017
In the Zone
- GBPUSD
- AUDUSD
- USDJPY
- USDZAR
Noteworthy News
- The Republicans did admit last night that there are not enough votes yet to pass the new Healthcare vote. I suspect that there would have been some serious negotiations last night and I expect this bill to get passed tonight.
Recap
Yesterday in my mind was a big waste of time, the day centred on the healthcare vote in the US and this focus killed the volatility in the market. The market took a wait and see approach to this and by time the White House let us know that the vote would now only happen on Friday, the market was for the most part done for the day.
To answer some questions, the reason that the market is even concerned about this vote is purely because this is essentially Presidents Trumps first test since taking office. The American public have put a lot of faith in the Republican Party by giving them control of the House, Senate and Presidency. Despite the victory, there is not a lot of solidity within the Republicans and this is also the first time that the Democrats have dug their heels in. Despite the power that the Republicans hold, if they can’t get this vote through, some serious doubts will start to form on whether Trump will be able to deliver on his campaign promises.
For me the news of the day should be the performance of the GBPUSD, with the impending Brexit looming large the bias still favours the sellers. The mere sight of cable making gains for 6 of the last 7 days – into a crowded short position – is worth mentioning. I will keep my eye on the 1.2560 level this morning, it was resistance last night and possibly where sellers are starting to position themselves, there is also the chance that these buyers take profits ahead of the weekend.
The USDJPY did have a dip lower to test 110.60 before slowly bouncing and closing around 111.30. We highlighted this level yesterday as a level to watch. The buyers will want the pair to trade above this support level but this pair will be dictated to by the US equity market.
Both the EURUSD and commodity currencies traded in tight ranges and are clearly waiting for the vote before deciding on how to break the range. There are a few technical levels to watch, including a nice channel in the USDZAR which I have highlighted in the morning video.
I suspect that this vote in the US may be a non-event. Regardless of the politicking, most the Republicans want Obamacare changed in some way and so there may just need some tweaks in the replacement bill for it to get passed. I truly believe that a compromise will come to the fore – the Republicans will want to set the tone for the next 4 years by passing their first test. Regardless of what the media report, the Trump administration is not going to fall apart on this vote.
Daily Ranges 24/03/2017
Majors
EURUSD
Resistance 1.0810 – 1.0830
Support 1.0740 – 1.0720
GBPUSD
Resistance 1.2530 – 1.2565
Support 1.2460 – 1.2440
AUDUSD
Resistance 0.7660 – 0.7680
Support 0.7610 – 0.7590
NZDUSD
Resistance 0.7050 – 0.7070
Support 0.7005 – 0.6980
USDCAD
Resistance 1.3380 – 1.3400
Support 1.3300 – 1.3280
USDJPY
Resistance 111.40 – 111.60
Support 111.00 – 110.70
USDCHF
Resistance 0.9950 – 0.9970
Support 0.9910 – 0.9900
Rand
USDZAR
Resistance 12.5880 – 12.6190
Support 12.4650 – 12.4300
EURZAR
Resistance 13.5690 – 13.6000
Support 13.4300 – 13.4000
GBPZAR
Resistance 15.6970 – 15.7200
Support 15.6450 – 15.6000
Minors
AUDCAD
Resistance 1.0220 – 1.0240
Support 1.0170 – 1.0140
AUDJPY
Resistance 85.20 – 85.40
Support 84.60 – 84.30
EURCHF
Resistance 1.0730 – 1.0740
Support 1.0700 – 1.0680
EURGBP
Resistance 0.8650 – 0.8670
Support 0.8610 – 0.8600
EURJPY
Resistance 120.20 – 120.40
Support 119.50 – 119.30
GBPJPY
Resistance 139.30 – 139.50
Support 138.50 – 138.20
GBPCAD
Resistance 1.6709 – 1.6730
Support 1.6620 – 1.6600
GBPCHF
Resistance 1.2420 – 1.2440
Support 1.2350 – 1.2320
Indices
DE30
Resistance 12050 – 12080
Support 11930 – 11900
UK100
Resistance 7350 – 7380
Support 7310 – 7280
US500
Resistance 2360 – 2380
Support 2330 – 2310
US30
Resistance 20730 – 20750
Support 20600 – 20530
SA40
Resistance 45800 – 46000
Support 45000 – 44800
Commodities
BRENT
Resistance 51.00 – 51.20
Support 50.20 – 50.00
XAUUSD
Resistance 1250.00 – 1275.00
Support 1220.00 – 1200.00
XAGUSD
Resistance 17.50 – 17.70
Support 17.20 – 17.00
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