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The market was gripped by developments on what is being reported as a possible terrorist attack on the Houses of Parliament yesterday afternoon. Details are still being investigated, but this will be something to watch over the coming days. The UK and the EU have long butted heads on the “freedom of movement,” during Brexit negotiations. If it materialises that a terrorist made itself to London through Europe, the EU can expect a torrid time at the negotiation table when Article 50 is triggered.
Dean's Daily FX Update – 23 March 2017
In the Zone
- EURUSD
- GBPUSD
- USDCHF
- USDJPY
- USDZAR
Noteworthy News
- The market will watch attentively this afternoon on the possible repeal and replacement of Obamacare. This could have some far reaching consequences on the US stock market.
Recap
To be completely honest, the market brushed this aside and instead decided to focus on a vote to repeal Obamacare later today. This could have far reaching consequences as if this is to be repealed, we could see another sell off in the equity markets which would weigh heavily on the dollar. It will also bring with it a dose of volatility to both the interest rate and commodity market. I would expect the market to possibly trade sideways until the vote is revealed.
The EURUSD continues to strengthen ahead of this vote, sellers are predictably leaning against the 1.0820 level, and it is both the top of a defined range as well as the 50% fib formed from the US elections in November. The bulls will have to see a close above this level before they feel comfortable, this pair is still influenced by fundamental risks and I think that the risk is still to the downside.
There was an initial fall in cable on the terrorist attack in London, the pair did find some swift support at 1.2420 and bounced back towards 1.2500. This will be the key level to watch leading into today, there was a topside trend line that defines resistance at 1.2500 and we will see the buyers and sellers fight at this level. I continue to sit out in this pair due to the looming Brexit situation.
The USDJPY was once again the leader of the pack, it did break below major support at 111.50 and even traded as low as 111.00 – twice! The pair did bounce again but I suspect that there is a defined range forming between 111.00 and 111.60, the vote on Obamacare may be the catalyst to break the range as the USDJPY will take its cue from US treasuries.
Daily Ranges 23/03/2017
Majors
EURUSD
Resistance 1.0810 – 1.0830
Support 1.0740 – 1.0720
GBPUSD
Resistance 1.2490 – 1.2515
Support 1.2410 – 1.2380
AUDUSD
Resistance 0.7700 – 0.7720
Support 0.7640 – 0.7610
NZDUSD
Resistance 0.7050 – 0.7070
Support 0.7025 – 0.7000
USDCAD
Resistance 1.3380 – 1.3400
Support 1.3300 – 1.3280
USDJPY
Resistance 111.60 – 111.80
Support 111.00 – 110.70
USDCHF
Resistance 0.9950 – 0.9970
Support 0.9910 – 0.9900
Rand
USDZAR
Resistance 12.6750 – 12.7150
Support 12.5450 – 12.5000
EURZAR
Resistance 13.6720 – 13.7250
Support 13.5460 – 13.5000
GBPZAR
Resistance 15.7690 – 15.8000
Support 15.6450 – 15.6000
Minors
AUDCAD
Resistance 1.0260 – 1.0300
Support 1.0200 – 1.0170
AUDJPY
Resistance 85.80 – 86.00
Support 85.10 – 84.90
EURCHF
Resistance 1.0730 – 1.0740
Support 1.0700 – 1.0680
EURGBP
Resistance 0.8670 – 0.8680
Support 0.8630 – 0.8600
EURJPY
Resistance 120.60 – 120.80
Support 120.00 – 119.70
GBPJPY
Resistance 139.30 – 139.50
Support 138.50 – 138.20
GBPCAD
Resistance 1.6670 – 1.6690
Support 1.6570 – 1.6550
GBPCHF
Resistance 1.2390 – 1.2420
Support 1.2350 – 1.2320
Indices
DE30
Resistance 11950 – 11980
Support 11890 – 11870
UK100
Resistance 7380 – 7400
Support 7310 – 7280
US500
Resistance 2360 – 2380
Support 2330 – 2310
US30
Resistance 20850 – 20900
Support 20600 – 20530
SA40
Resistance 44800 – 45000
Support 44100 – 43800
Commodities
BRENT
Resistance 51.40 – 51.60
Support 50.50 – 50.20
XAUUSD
Resistance 1250.00 – 1275.00
Support 1220.00 – 1200.00
XAGUSD
Resistance 17.50 – 17.70
Support 17.20 – 17.00
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