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Dean's Daily FX Update – 21 June 2017
In the Zone
- AUDUSD
- NZDUSD
- USDCAD
Noteworthy News
- After a White House reshuffle, there was a Senate seat up for grabs out of Georgia last night – the media had coined this is the “Trump referendum,” and had speculated that the seat would be convincingly lost to the Democrats. The Republicans won the seat in overwhelming fashion and this should give the White House a little bit of confidence.
Recap
Yesterday we saw the continuation of the talking heads out of the Fed, we have discussed that Fed Chair Yellen was rather bullish last week but thus far the all the Fed have done is confused the market – and yesterday was no different. Both Evans and Kaplan spoke yesterday, both are concerned about inflation and yet both believe it is transitory. Both also indicated that they expected rates to raise and to see the Fed start unwinding the balance sheet, neither seem to be much in a hurry and both seem to be concerned about the economy falling off – the message came across as though the Fed were willing to raise rates now to give themselves tools if the economy comes under pressure, strange one.
After the complete optimism the GBP got last week after we saw a surprising vote that suggested an imminent raise in rates, BOE Governor Carney spoiled the party. He was less hawkish and suggested that “now was not the time to raise rates,” and this triggered some selling in the pair as we saw the GBP trade to as low as the 100 day MA at 1.2628. This is where price wandered for most of the day. We are at a key level this morning, but I do believe that the sellers are very much in the driving seat and that the pair could wander lower.
The EURUSD is still stuck in a rather stubborn range and the bottom of this range at 1.1131 is still providing some support. We did have a look below this level but the buyers started building bids, it is proving to be an interesting tussle here at these levels. The sellers will want to get back below that level to target 1.1105 which is both the low from May and trend line support level, the buyers will want to get above 1.1165.
The AUDUSD is also being trading in a tight range but we saw the first evidence last night that the buyers may be on the verge of throwing in the towel. The key level to watch this afternoon will be 0.7566 as this was the ceiling last week and has been the floor this week. If price is able to get above that level then the buyers will start targeting 0.7585 and 0.7600. I suspect that we may break lower and target 0.7550 this morning, a close around those levels and we will target 0.7500 – 0.7450 in the coming weeks.
The commodity pairs still represent the best trading opportunities for me.
Daily Ranges 21/06/2017
Majors
EURUSD
Resistance 1.1150 – 1.1160
Support 1.1110 – 1.1100
GBPUSD
Resistance 1.2660 – 1.2680
Support 1.2600 – 1.2540
AUDUSD
Resistance 0.7600 – 0.7610
Support 0.7550 – 0.7530
NZDUSD
Resistance 0.7250 – 0.7260
Support 0.7210 – 0.7180
USDCAD
Resistance 1.3300 – 1.3300
Support 1.3230 – 1.3210
USDJPY
Resistance 111.60 – 111.80
Support 111.00 – 110.70
USDCHF
Resistance 0.9750 – 0.9770
Support 0.9700 – 0.9680
Rand
USDZAR
Resistance 13.1000 – 13.1500
Support 12.9500 – 12.9000
EURZAR
Resistance 14.5940 – 14.6200
Support 14.4540 – 14.4000
GBPZAR
Resistance 16.5580 – 16.6060
Support 16.3650 – 16.3200
Minors
AUDCAD
Resistance 1.0070 – 1.0090
Support 1.0020 – 1.0010
AUDJPY
Resistance 84.70 – 85.00
Support 83.90 – 83.70
EURCHF
Resistance 1.0870 – 1.0880
Support 1.0850 – 1.0830
EURGBP
Resistance 0.8800 – 0.8820
Support 0.8720 – 0.8700
EURJPY
Resistance 124.50 – 124.70
Support 124.00 – 123.80
GBPJPY
Resistance 141.56 – 141.70
Support 140.00 – 139.80
GBPCAD
Resistance 1.6830 – 1.6850
Support 1.6760 – 1.6740
GBPCHF
Resistance 1.2350 – 1.2360
Support 1.2270 – 1.2250
Indices
DE30
Resistance 12870 – 12890
Support 12720 – 12700
UK100
Resistance 7530 – 7550
Support 7430 – 7410
US500
Resistance 2440 – 2460
Support 2420 – 2400
US30
Resistance 21500 – 21520
Support 21420 – 21400
SA40
Resistance
Support
Commodities
BRENT
Resistance 46.70 – 46.90
Support 45.70 – 45.50
XAUUSD
Resistance 1250 – 1260
Support 1240 – 1230
XAGUSD
Resistance 16.70 – 16.80
Support 16.50 – 16.30
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