With the US not in the market yesterday in observance of Martin Luther King Day, the FX markets were eerily quiet in the New York Session and this meant the moves are difficult to interpret. The IMF were in meetings for most of yesterday and the global growth was kept unchanged at 3.4% – the interesting stat was that they see some better than expected growth in the UK.
Dean's Daily FX Update – 17 January 2017
In the Zone
- GBPUSD
- AUDUSD
- NZDUSD
- USDCAD
- USDZAR
Noteworthy News
- Judging by the IMF meeting in Davos this week, it has emerged that the two fastest growing economies are India at 6.6% and China at 6.7% – lets hope that some of this can rub off on the rest of the BRICS members.
Recap
The USD was rather strong yesterday and we are already seeing some of that strength start to reverse this morning – we often see this happen on a US public holiday and I would not be surprised to see price action drift back to Friday closing levels before deciding on direction.
The EURUSD did drift lower last night but was able to find some strong support at the 200 hour MA which is sitting at 1.0570, this means that for now the buyers are still in control but we are approaching some key resistance levels at 1.0650 and this hurdle may be a tough one to clear.
The majority of yesterday’s action was in cable, after weekend speculation that we are going to see a “hard” Brexit there was an opening gap – not even a speech by BOE Governor Carney could halt the momentum. The encouraging news – for now at least – is that the pair found support at the October flash crash lows at 1.2000. From a technical analysis theory, the GBPUSD should close the gap to 1.2180 but with PM May expected to deliver an update today I think that the market will be looking to short to this pair. As discussed last week, there is too much volatility in this pair for me and so I will continue to sit out.
The USDJPY has had a blinder of a week as the pair continues the correction after such a deep dollar move, the top side resistance comes in at 114.15. I think that a close below 113.75 is key for the JPY to continue the momentum but for now it seems as though the sellers hold the initiative.
I still think that the opportunity lies in the commodity pairs as the moves seem exaggerated, but I do cover this more in the morning video.
Daily Ranges 17/01/2017
Majors
EURUSD
Resistance 1.0665 – 1.0680
Support 1.0580 – 1.0550
GBPUSD
Resistance 1.2135 – 1.2150
Support 1.2030 – 1.2010
AUDUSD
Resistance 0.7530 – 0.7560
Support 0.7463 – 0.7440
NZDUSD
Resistance 0.7150 – 0.7170
Support 0.7086 – 0.7070
USDCAD
Resistance 1.3170 – 1.3190
Support 1.3110 – 1.3090
USDJPY
Resistance 114.50 – 114.70
Support 113.20 – 113.00
USDCHF
Resistance 1.0124 – 1.0138
Support 1.0070 – 1.0040
Rand
USDZAR
Resistance 13.6640 – 13.7130
Support 13.5340 – 13.4920
EURZAR
Resistance 14.5000 – 14.5530
Support 14.3890 – 14.3550
GBPZAR
Resistance 16.5190 – 16.5656
Support 16.2717 – 16.2424
Minors
AUDCAD
Resistance 0.9855 – 0.9880
Support 0.9810 – 0.9800
AUDJPY
Resistance 85.65 – 85.80
Support 85.10 – 85.03
EURCHF
Resistance 1.0730 – 1.0740
Support 1.0710 – 1.0700
EURGBP
Resistance 0.8820 – 0.8842
Support 0.8760 – 0.8740
EURJPY
Resistance 121.50 – 121.70
Support 120.60 – 120.19
GBPJPY
Resistance 138.40 – 138.70
Support 137.08 – 136.80
GBPCAD
Resistance 1.5920 – 1.5950
Support 1.5820 – 1.5800
GBPCHF
Resistance 1.2238 – 1.2257
Support 1.2148 – 1.2120
Indices
DE30
Resistance 11600 – 11625
Support 11490 – 11450
UK100
Resistance 7320 – 7330
Support 7270 – 7240
US500
Resistance 2270 – 2300
Support 2260 – 2220
US30
Resistance 19900 – 19950
Support 19800 – 19600
SA40
Resistance 46000 – 46400
Support 45700 – 45500
Commodities
BRENT
Resistance 55.90 – 56.20
Support 55.00 – 54.85
XAUUSD
Resistance 1212.09 – 1220.00
Support 1195.00 – 1190.20
XAGUSD
Resistance 16.80 – 16.90
Support 16.40 – 16.30
Important Economic Data out today
- 11:30 GBP CPI
- 15:45 USD Fed Member Dudley Speaks
- 17:00 USD Treasury Sec Lew Speaks
- 17:00 USD Fed Member Brainard Speaks
- Tentative NZD GDT Pricing Index
- Tentative GBP PM Theresa May
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