If any FX traders had any doubts to the type of volatility we may experience in the next 4 years, then they obviously did not watch President Elect Trumps first press conference last night. There are a lot of words to describe it – but the word BIZARRE comes front of mind. He didn’t once discuss infrastructure or repealing regulation, he did discuss how he beat Hillary Clinton and what he would do with his business and investments. The only thing discussed that was not about himself was about Russian and in particular, Putin. From the introduction that he received, to the refusal to answer any questions from a CNN reporter – this press conference was like no other, and it’s only the beginning.
Dean's Daily FX Update – 12 January 2017
In the Zone
- GBPUSD
- AUDUSD
- NZDUSD
- USDCAD
Noteworthy News
- Donald Trump spoke in glowing terms of Mexico yesterday which was a sharp turn around from his campaign. The market will be watching to see how he implements his campaign rallies, but if he starts to back track, his supporters may become anxious.
Recap
Before the presser the USD was strong against all major pairs, the EURUSD was at the 2015 lows, cable had traded below the October flash crash, and the USDJPY had found some large support around the 200 hour MA at the magical 116.50 levels. Trumps speech completely reversed all the hard work that the USD had done, and the “pain” didn’t stop when the speech was done – the greenback just continued its plummet.
After moving down to 1.0450, the EURUSD did manage to slow momentum which is good news for the EUR bulls – this clearly indicates that the market are raising their bottom target on the EUR. As the speech rolled on, price started to ratchet up – at pace. There were technical levels broken from the 200 hour MA all the way to the 100 hour MA at 1.0560. This will be the key level to watch this morning.
The USDJPY finally found the catalyst that we were waiting for to break through the 116.00 level. The move was characterised by some rebounds every time we broke a major level but none the less the pair tumbled by 150 pips – although most of the gains were recovered late last night. We closed below 116.00 which was massive. The sellers are still in control and there are no major support levels in offering right now, I would not be surprised to see this pair trade to that 113.70 level.
The USD weakness has found extremes in almost all the major pairs and so I will cover the majority in the morning video. I think that we could see some potential recoveries once the knee jerk reaction settles down today – patience will be the key today.
Daily Ranges 12/01/2017
Majors
EURUSD
Resistance 1.0607 – 1.0625
Support 1.0530 – 1.0510
GBPUSD
Resistance 1.2220 – 1.2245
Support 1.2124 – 1.2100
AUDUSD
Resistance 0.7470 – 0.7490
Support 0.7390– 0.7380
NZDUSD
Resistance 0.7080 – 0.7100
Support 0.7000 – 0.6990
USDCAD
Resistance 1.3210 – 1.3230
Support 1.3120 – 1.3090
USDJPY
Resistance 115.90 – 116.20
Support 114.30 – 114.10
USDCHF
Resistance 1.0187 – 1.0200
Support 1.0117 – 1.0110
Rand
USDZAR
Resistance 13.8009 – 13.8350
Support 13.6400 – 13.6000
EURZAR
Resistance 14.5430 – 14.5820
Support 14.4530 – 14.4100
GBPZAR
Resistance 16.8320 – 16.8890
Support 16.6000 – 16.5537
Minors
AUDCAD
Resistance 0.9800 – 0.9814
Support 0.9750 – 0.9740
AUDJPY
Resistance 85.84 – 86.00
Support 85.30 – 85.10
EURCHF
Resistance 1.0740 – 1.0750
Support 1.0710 – 1.0700
EURGBP
Resistance 0.8706 – 0.8720
Support 0.8640 – 0.8620
EURJPY
Resistance 122.30 – 122.40
Support 121.30 – 121.09
GBPJPY
Resistance 141.10 – 141.40
Support 139.80 – 139.50
GBPCAD
Resistance 1.6116 – 1.6140
Support 1.6000 – 1.5976
GBPCHF
Resistance 1.2390 – 1.2410
Support 1.2310 – 1.2300
Indices
DE30
Resistance 11600 – 11650
Support 11560 – 11530
UK100
Resistance 7305 – 7310
Support 7250 – 7230
US500
Resistance 2270 – 2300
Support 2260 – 2220
US30
Resistance 19930 – 19950
Support 19850 – 19820
SA40
Resistance 46200 – 46400
Support 44900 – 44600
Commodities
BRENT
Resistance 55.20 – 55.70
Support 53.50 – 53.00
XAUUSD
Resistance 1199.09 – 1210.00
Support 1185.00 – 1181.20
XAGUSD
Resistance 16.90 – 17.00
Support 16.58 – 16.30
Important Economic Data out today
- 15:30 USD Unemployment Claims
- 15:30 USD FOMC Member Evans Speaks
- 15:30 USD FOMC Member Harker Speaks
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