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Dean's Daily FX Update – 09 May 2017
In the Zone
- GBPUSD
- NZDUSD
- USDCAD
- USDJPY
- USDZAR
Noteworthy News
- Sources are stating that both OPEC and non-OPEC countries are trying to negotiate a 9 month extension to the production cut. This should buoy the oil market, keep an eye on the headlines leading into the May 25th meeting for more headlines.
Recap
The dollar had a strong New York session last night as it strengthened against all the major currencies, it was a slow move however and looking at some of the candles on the 4 hour charts, the move has not been continued in the Asian Pacific session. There were some talking heads out of the Fed yesterday and there was some conflicting views with Mester hawkish leading into the year and Bullard continuing to be the eternal dove. The Fed seem to be pointing at the employment picture in the US which looks really strong, this however gives me a lot of doubts – the employment landscape must surely be heading towards full capacity and at some point that labour market has to cool. My concern is that if we have only seen 2 hikes in a hot employment environment, can we really expect 3 hikes in a cooling employment environment?
The French Presidential Election has come and gone, and catastrophe has been averted. The EURUSD did gap higher on Sunday evening but as we suspected, this was short lived as trading desks “sold the news.” The pair has found some support at 1.0920 which is also the 200 hour MA and so this level will become pivotal this morning. Despite Macron becoming French President, I still suspect that he is going to have very little sway in the form of parliament seats which is going to make it hard to govern. I suspect that Le Pen may win enough seats in parliament to veto almost anything. This could weigh on the EUR in the coming months.
The GBPUSD also sits at pivotal levels this morning, it did meander lower yesterday but it is safe to say that the move lower never held much conviction and it was no surprise that 1.2920 has formed support. On the topside, I still believe that traders are leaning against the 1.3000 level as its natural ceiling, this pair needs to close below either the 100 hour MA at 1.2920 or the 200 hour MA at 1.2910 for the sellers to be confident to sell this pair lower.
The AUDUSD seemed to be the trade to watch yesterday and we looked braced for a bounce, all we needed was some solid economic data. The retail sales came out this morning and were shockingly bad, this could mean that the AUD comes under immense pressure today. My strategy in the AUDUSD is to walk away today as London traders could sell the pair further – there may be better opportunity here later in the week.
Daily Ranges 09/05/2017
Majors
EURUSD
Resistance 1.0960 – 1.0970
Support 1.0900 – 1.0875
GBPUSD
Resistance 1.2970 – 1.2990
Support 1.2900 – 1.2880
AUDUSD
Resistance 0.7380 – 0.7400
Support 0.7320 – 0.7300
NZDUSD
Resistance 0.6920 – 0.6940
Support 0.6880 – 0.6860
USDCAD
Resistance 1.3710 – 1.3730
Support 1.3640 – 1.3620
USDJPY
Resistance 113.20 – 113.50
Support 112.70 – 112.50
USDCHF
Resistance 0.9980 – 1.0010
Support 0.9930 – 0.9900
Rand
USDZAR
Resistance 13.6800 – 13.7000
Support 13.5150 – 13.5070
EURZAR
Resistance 14.9440 – 14.9640
Support 14.7960 – 14.7700
GBPZAR
Resistance 17.7200 – 17.7500
Support 17.4860 – 17.4550
Minors
AUDCAD
Resistance 1.0130 – 1.0150
Support 1.0050 – 1.0010
AUDJPY
Resistance 83.60 – 83.80
Support 83.10 – 83.00
EURCHF
Resistance 1.0900 – 1.0920
Support 1.0850 – 1.0830
EURGBP
Resistance 0.8460 – 0.8470
Support 0.8420 – 0.8400
EURJPY
Resistance 123.90 – 124.00
Support 123.20 – 123.00
GBPJPY
Resistance 147.20 – 147.50
Support 145.30 – 145.00
GBPCAD
Resistance 1.7770 – 1.7780
Support 1.7690 – 1.7670
GBPCHF
Resistance 1.2930 – 1.2960
Support 1.2850 – 1.2830
Indices
DE30
Resistance 12780 – 12800
Support 12650 – 12600
UK100
Resistance
Support
US500
Resistance 2400 – 2420
Support 2360 – 2350
US30
Resistance 21000 – 21100
Support 20900 – 20870
SA40
Resistance 47700 – 47850
Support 46900 – 46700
Commodities
BRENT
Resistance 49.70 – 49.90
Support 48.40 – 48.00
XAUUSD
Resistance 1230.00 – 1235.00
Support 1220.00 – 1215.00
XAGUSD
Resistance 16.40 – 16.70
Support 16.20 – 16.00
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