Dean's Daily FX Update – 09 December 2016
In the Zone
- NZDUSD
- USDCAD
- USDJPY
Noteworthy News
- ECB President Draghi presented another smoke and mirrors speech yesterday, the take away for me is that the ECB are going to be involved in the markets for a very long time. Many analysts have been calling for EURUSD parity in the medium term and perhaps this is the start of the journey.
Recap
Yesterday the market eagerly awaited the ECB Press Conference, if you were looking for some fireworks you certainly would not have been disappointed. The end result of the ECB was an extension of QE in various forms – what it means is that the ECB will be involved in the market for an extended period. I interpret this as more cheap money looking for yield which will devalue the EUR.
On the back of the ECB press conference, the EURUSD suffered its biggest fall since Brexit, the 1.0600 level found support and this remains the key level to watch. The 100 Hour MA is trading at 1.0640 and that could develop into a ceiling heading into the weekend, as a matter of caution there is a big option expiry this afternoon in this pair and this could be a big factor in determining the next move. I looking to see if there is a bounce in the London session, but ultimately I think the EUR could come under pressure.
The GBPUSD traded at key support post the ECB announcement at 1.2580, which is also the 200 Hour MA, this level has been tested on two consecutive days and the more times we find support at this level the more valid it becomes. The key level to watch today is 1.2560, a close below this level is a bearish signal for the pair. Cable is evenly poised at the minute and I would be watching the EURGBP for clues as to how this pair will trade.
The USDCAD was a strong performer yesterday and continued its march against the USD, the recent momentum was again given more help in the form of impressive economic data. At 1.3170 we have a lot of confluence, it represents the 100 hour MA, a 50% fib on the daily chart as well as daily support. This means that we have a lot of reasons to look to buy the pair, despite this I will be sitting out this pair today. We have event risk in the form of non-OPEC countries meeting over the weekend, I don’t want to be caught in the midst of a gap open on Sunday evening.
The AUDUSD has been a little bit choppy this week, we are stuck in the recent range that was formed and I continue to see a break of either side of this range to define the next move. The USDZAR has found a lot of love over the last two weeks and has been extremely strong. It found support yesterday and with metal prices under a little pressure we may see the ZAR come under pressure, bear in mind that we are probably going to see an interest rate hike from the FED next week which will have a negative effect on the emerging market currencies.
Daily Ranges 09/12/2016
Majors
EURUSD
Resistance 1.0700 – 1.0722
Support 1.0600 – 1.0580
GBPUSD
Resistance 1.2650 – 1.2685
Support 1.2590 – 1.2560
AUDUSD
Resistance 0.7487 – 0.7490
Support 0.7440 – 0.7420
NZDUSD
Resistance 0.7210 – 0.7220
Support 0.7145 – 0.7130
USDCAD
Resistance 1.3233 – 1.3260
Support 1.3170 – 1.3140
USDJPY
Resistance 114.40 – 114.60
Support 113.40 – 113.08
USDCHF
Resistance 1.0157 – 1.0180
Support 1.0090 – 1.0078
Rand
USDZAR
Resistance 13.6800 – 13.7116
Support 13.5330 – 13.4550
EURZAR
Resistance 14.6038 – 14.6662
Support 14.5125 – 14.4695
GBPZAR
Resistance 17.5659 – 17.6406
Support 17.0239 – 16.9545
Minors
AUDCAD
Resistance 0.9875 – 0.9900
Support 0.9835 – 0.9806
AUDJPY
Resistance 85.40 – 85.52
Support 84.91 – 84.74
EURCHF
Resistance 1.0833 – 1.0852
Support 1.0765 – 1.0744
EURGBP
Resistance 0.8496 – 0.8520
Support 0.8425 – 0.8400
EURJPY
Resistance 122.04 – 122.31
Support 121.45 – 120.96
GBPJPY
Resistance 144.30 – 144.80
Support 143.39 – 142.99
GBPCAD
Resistance 1.6715 – 1.6736
Support 1.6607 – 1.6573
GBPCHF
Resistance 1.2803 – 1.2820
Support 1.2720 – 1.2703
CADCHF
Resistance 0.7679 – 0.7714
Support 0.7620 – 0.7600
Indices
DE30
Resistance 11147 – 11250
Support 10890 – 10817
UK100
Resistance 6950 – 6990
Support 6847 – 6881
US500
Resistance 2250 – 2260
Support 2215 – 2200
US30
Resistance 19600 – 19900
Support 19300 – 19000
SA40
Resistance 43700 – 44100
Support 42600 – 42500
Commodities
BRENT
Resistance 54.18 – 54.60
Support 52.58 – 52.00
XAUUSD
Resistance 1180.00 – 1190.20
Support 1165.74 – 1163.00
XAGUSD
Resistance 17.19 – 17.30
Support 16.84 – 16.73
Important Economic Data out today
- 17:00 USD Consumer Sentiment
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