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06 September 2017- Dean Forex Market Commentary

06 Sep
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06 September 2017- Dean Forex Market Commentary

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Dean’s Daily FX Update – 06 September 2017

In the Zone

  • Gold

Noteworthy News

  • Hurricane Irma has been upgraded to category 5, the path is not certain yet and although it looks Florida is the likely destination, it could move towards the gulf which may affect oil prices.


The dollar was the big loser yesterday and there were a lot of logical conclusions for this, the rising tensions in North Korea are leading the gold price to be slightly more robust and this weakens the dollar. There was talk that refineries in Houston are starting to come back up and this means that the oil price will rise as demand increases, a stronger oil price always puts pressure on the dollar. I am walking away from both oil and the USDCAD for now as hurricane Irma is threatening to move into the Gulf again.

We are also seeing a flight into US treasuries on the back of potential conflict with NK, we have our FOMC members in a dovish mood this week and increased funding to help with the hurricane “pick up” will mean interest rates stay on hold for longer. It is a tough time to trade the markets, and I have a suspicion that September could be a defining month for Donald Trump – the world will want to see how he handles the devastation in Houston, how he handles NK and lastly if he is finally able to get something through congress.

Cable enjoyed a little bit of a bounce yesterday and it moved into the 200 hour MA trading at 1.2980 closing closer to 1.3020. There is room for the pair to drift towards 1.3075 and possible even 1.3150 if that level breaks.  This morning though 1.3000 – 1.3020 becomes a level to watch, this is where buyers will likely build their bids.

The USDJPY will be an interesting pair to watch this week as any bounce is getting met with a wall of offers. I will be watching 108.60 level with keen interest, this level has been the floor recently and it does seem as though this floor could potentially be broking. When major floors break, it has a habit of changing polarity and becoming a ceiling. It only needs one comment out of either the US or NK for this pair to spiral out of control.

Keep an eye out for the afternoon video that tries to tie everything together.

Important Economic Data out today

14:30                                 CAD                                   Trade Balance

Consensus:                      -3.2B

Effect:                                Actual higher than expected is good for the CAD


14:30                                 USD                                    Trade Balance

Consensus:                      -44.6B

Effect:                                Actual higher than expected is good for the USD


16:00                                 CAD                                   Overnight Rate

Consensus:                      0.75%

Effect:                                Actual higher than expected is good for the CAD


16:00                                 CAD                                   BOC Rate Statement

Consensus:                      None

Effect:                                More hawkish than expected is good the CAD


16:00                                 USD                                    ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

Consensus:                      55.8B

Effect:                                Actual higher than expected is good for the USD

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