The major commodity currencies (AUDUSD, NZDUSD and USDCAD) were in focus this morning along with the USDJPY. The event risk was in the form of US Unemployment Claims which were out at 14:30 this afternoon. The OIL price, GOLD price and MILK (No Jokes) prices can have major effects on some of these FX pairs!
The EURUSD is boring the pants of us here. Normally one of our most traded pairs and we are seeing next to no volume at the moment. The Euro has traded in the same tiny range and can only hope that traders are positioning themselves for a push one way or the other after tomorrow’s NFP number. Expectations are for 170k jobs to have been added to the US Economy. A bad number could see the Euro rally against the dollar and finally break the range.
Cable (GBPUSD) is falling like the piano we spoke about earlier this week. We have nearly touched 1.26 in trading today and staying out of this one is probably wise. There are more casualties in forex markets than success stories when trying to pick the bottom. There is an old saying, “top and bottom pickers, become cotton pickers”.
Dean moved up his support level this morning to 0.7585 in the AUDUSD. It has not held but there seems to be some consolidation around 0.7560 and we will see what tomorrow brings. We think that he is still looking to trade this from the long side.
The NZDUSD trade a little lower this morning but we found some support around 0.7135. A tiny range today of 35 pips which is half the average we usually see. Dean will be watching to see if this support will hold and will be looking for excuses to go long this pair.
Very similar action today as we saw yesterday. The USDCAD drifted up this morning to that huge level, 1.3250. We have seen selling for the last hour or two and now sitting at 1.32. I would feel sure that Dean has been involved from the short side around 1.3250. Sometimes your gut and experience take over at huge levels … even if you have to break one or two rules.
Dean was hoping to sell the USDJPY this morning. He did say that a candle close above 103.66 would remove his reasons to sell and he would sit out. We are now trading above 104 so a good one to have swerved.
The forex markets will be focusing on Non-Farm Payrolls tomorrow and there is data out of Canada about the same time. Dean seldom trades over these numbers because the markets can become very choppy and blow your trades very quickly. Good luck tomorrow if you are going to trade!
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