This was as tough a week as I can remember in the financial markets, we had to endure the plethora of Central Bank meetings as well as an always eagerly awaited Non-Farm Payroll data release. We also had to navigate through the ever evolving circus that is US Politics, and the almost daily signing of executive orders, some of which now look as though they are going to reach the Supreme Court. There are also the juvenile tantrums of President Trump when he doesn’t get his way.
The US data was once again a mixed bag, the NFP showed an impressive increase which was supportive for the USD, but the greenback did give back those gains on much softer non- manufacturing data and an increase in the unemployment rate. Late in the New York session, we were reminded that there was still a possibility of an interest rate hike in March, it would seem as though the Fed don’t want to have to chase inflation and this reminder was the catalyst for yet another dollar run – crazy times!
The EURUSD bottomed out at 1.0700 after the NFP announcement, this level is also the 38% fib from the November high. The high stalled against the 100 day MA at 1.0800, these two levels have formed somewhat of a range in recent sessions and this pair has not been able to break either way, I will be watching both levels next week and will want to see a break either way before I am tempted to trade this pair.
Cable has presented a lot of trading opportunities in recent weeks. After closing above the 100 day MA last week, for the first time since Brexit, it is battling to gain any more momentum. The low for the week was 1.2450, and the market for now is happy to build some support down there, these are the levels where GBPUSD closed. If we are able to get yet another bounce, then the highs of this week, around 1.2650 – 1.2700 will be targeted. I continue to sit this pair out, there is too much fundamental risk in this pair for me.
The USDJPY made some nice gains this week, and it traded as low as 112.15. For JPY traders, it would have been encouraging that hawkish comments out of the Fed on Friday could not send the pair much higher than 113.00. This pair has been inching lower every week in 2017 and I will be waiting to see if 113.00 has changed polarity and become topside resistance. On the bottom end, 112.00 is key support, a break lower and we could easily test 111.20.
Both the AUDUSD and NZDUSD took the data release a little bit more seriously and both strengthened significantly against the greenback on Friday afternoon. Both pairs stalled at recent highs and both pairs closed around double tops. These double tops could obviously break, but we will also see sellers leaning against these levels. These are the two pairs that I will be watching most closely as I think they may present the best opportunity early next week.
Next week promises to bring yet another bout of “Trumponomics,” to be fair some of his policies seem promising but he still hasn’t let anyone know how he is going to achieve these goals. He can’t keep on relying on that twitter account to shock the markets. The US also runs the risk of polarizing themselves with Trumps continued bashing of other countries and childish tantrums.
At least we get a weekend reprieve though!
Weekly Ranges 06/02/2017 – 10/02/2017
Majors
EURUSD
Resistance 1.0800 – 1.0820
Support 1.0700 – 1.0675
GBPUSD
Resistance 1.2640 – 1.2670
Support 1.2450 – 1.2430
AUDUSD
Resistance 0.7679 – 0.7700
Support 0.7546 – 0.7530
NZDUSD
Resistance 0.7330 – 0.7350
Support 0.7236 – 0.7218
USDCAD
Resistance 1.3128 – 1.3160
Support 1.2987 – 1.2960
USDJPY
Resistance 114.20 – 114.40
Support 112.30 – 112.10
USDCHF
Resistance 0.9970 – 1.0000
Support 0.9883 – 0.9860
Rand
USDZAR
Resistance 13.5274 – 13.5695
Support 13.2458 – 13.1951
EURZAR
Resistance 14.5138 – 14.5444
Support 14.2720 – 14.2350
GBPZAR
Resistance 16.9885 – 17.0230
Support 16.5405 – 16.4930
Minors
AUDCAD
Resistance 0.9996 – 1.0012
Support 0.9877 – 0.9850
AUDJPY
Resistance 86.69 – 86.90
Support 85.68 – 85.42
EURCHF
Resistance 1.0707 – 1.0730
Support 1.0660 – 1.0640
EURGBP
Resistance 0.8630 – 0.8660
Support 0.8495 – 0.8470
EURJPY
Resistance 122.50 – 122.70
Support 121.35 – 121.10
GBPJPY
Resistance 143.40 – 144.00
Support 140.50 – 140.17
GBPCAD
Resistance 1.6528 – 1.6560
Support 1.6250 – 1.6225
GBPCHF
Resistance 1.2537 – 1.2575
Support 1.2347 – 1.2320
Indices
DE30
Resistance 11760 – 11790
Support 11600 – 11550
UK100
Resistance 7190 – 7230
Support 7100 – 7080
US500
Resistance 2290 – 2320
Support 2260 – 2230
US30
Resistance 20045 – 20079
Support 19850 – 19800
SA40
Resistance 46800 – 47000
Support 45700 – 45400
Commodities
BRENT
Resistance 56.80 – 57.00
Support 55.20 – 55.00
XAUUSD
Resistance 1220.00 – 1230.00
Support 1190.00 – 1170.20
XAGUSD
Resistance 17.60 – 17.80
Support 17.00 – 16.78
