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Market Insight Commentary – Forex
Today's News Headlines
- Mnuchin sees growth in the US at 3% for some time despite these low rates, this would be impressive. This also is completely different to what Trump was saying last month, who is targeting something close to 6%.
Market Insight Commentary – Indices
Market Recap
We spoke about the week starting with a bit of a wash out, we had to navigate through the State of the Nation late last night, throw into the fact that it is month end and sometimes we can get some “funny” moves. We can definitely see this occurring in the stock market, but nothing in the FX market which is nothing new anyway.
I didn’t see any worthwhile moves yesterday and continue to monitor this move, I see a lot of pairs drifting today towards the top of their recent trades. The market is also starting to rain divergence which could suggest that the recent momentum against the greenback is starting to wane somewhat. It is hard to argue that there is a rebalancing ahead of month end, but that works into my favour.
The video this morning highlights 3 or 4 pairs that illustrates the fact that we are close to a couple of nice technical set ups – I just hope that these pairs take place before the US jobs numbers on Friday.
Important Economic Data Due Today
12:00 EUR CPI
Consensus: 1.3%
Effect: Actual higher than expected is good for the EUR
15:15 USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
Consensus: 186K
Effect: Actual higher than expected is good for the USD
15:30 CAD GDP
Consensus: 0.4%
Effect: Actual higher than expected is good for the CAD
17:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories
Consensus: 0.1
Effect: No consistent effect on the USD
21:00 USD Federal Funds Rate
Consensus: 1.50%
Effect: Actual higher than expected is good for the USD
21:00 USD FOMC Statement
Consensus: None
Effect: More hawkish than expected is good for the USD
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