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Market Insight Commentary – 31 January 2018

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Market Insight Commentary – Forex

Today's News Headlines

  • Mnuchin sees growth in the US at 3% for some time despite these low rates, this would be impressive. This also is completely different to what Trump was saying last month, who is targeting something close to 6%.

Market Insight Commentary – Indices

Market Recap

We spoke about the week starting with a bit of a wash out, we had to navigate through the State of the Nation late last night, throw into the fact that it is month end and sometimes we can get some “funny” moves. We can definitely see this occurring in the stock market, but nothing in the FX market which is nothing new anyway.

I didn’t see any worthwhile moves yesterday and continue to monitor this move, I see a lot of pairs drifting today towards the top of their recent trades. The market is also starting to rain divergence which could suggest that the recent momentum against the greenback is starting to wane somewhat. It is hard to argue that there is a rebalancing ahead of month end, but that works into my favour.

The video this morning highlights 3 or 4 pairs that illustrates the fact that we are close to a couple of nice technical set ups – I just hope that these pairs take place before the US jobs numbers on Friday.

Important Economic Data Due Today

12:00                           EUR                              CPI

Consensus:                   1.3%

Effect:                          Actual higher than expected is good for the EUR

 

15:15                           USD                              ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

Consensus:                   186K

Effect:                          Actual higher than expected is good for the USD

 

15:30                           CAD                             GDP

Consensus:                   0.4%

Effect:                          Actual higher than expected is good for the CAD

 

17:30                           USD                              Crude Oil Inventories

Consensus:                   0.1

Effect:                          No consistent effect on the USD

 

21:00                           USD                              Federal Funds Rate

Consensus:                   1.50%

Effect:                          Actual higher than expected is good for the USD

 

21:00                           USD                              FOMC Statement 

Consensus:                   None

Effect:                          More hawkish than expected is good for the USD

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