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Market Insight Commentary – Forex
Today's News Headlines
- When former Fed Chair Greenspan speaks, the market usually sits up and takes notice – yesterday he reiterated that a global trade war is definitely on the cards. Could be more volatility on the cards.
Market Insight Commentary – Indices
Market Recap
The Fed decision was the major release of the day and the market seemed to be content to tread water until then, we were expecting the Fed to raise rates and also raise the expectation of further rates in 2018 – both were duly delivered. This all reflects a stronger economy and with the threat of Trumps trade tariffs, the Fed are clearly expecting higher wages and fuller employment to raise inflation. The news initially sent the dollar higher but in my most cases this reversed sometime later in the evening.
The EURUSD fell towards a support swing area at 1.1725 and bounced from there, there is an ECB meeting today and with the EU threatening to start the tapering of QE there could be some volatility this afternoon. We have a clearly defined support level mentioned above and the high is trading at 1.1800, this is where sellers may get interested – but once the ECB starts – all bets will be off.
The GBPUSD fell towards the lower trend line at 1.3320, this is where support buyers came into the market and forced price back towards 1.3385 which also happens to be a 200 hour MA. These area will be good enough to stall price for now, but I suspect that I .3450 is still where most the sellers will start building offers.
This has been a tough week – G7 meetings, US-North Korea summit, CPI, PPI, FOMC, Brexit Votes, SNB and today ECB – the market has been tough and choppy. We deserve to enjoy the World Cup this afternoon.
Important Economic Data Due Today
10:30 GBP Retail Sales
Consensus: 0.5%
Effect: Actual higher than expected is good for the GBP
13:45 EUR Refinancing Rate
Consensus: 0.00%
Effect: Actual higher than expected is good for the EUR
14:30 ECB Press Conference
Consensus: None
Effect: More hawkish than expected is good for the EUR
14:30 USD Retail Sales
Consensus: 0.4%
Effect: Actual higher than expected is good for the USD
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