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Market Insight Commentary – 08 December 2017

08 Dec
Finance

Market Insight Commentary – 08 December 2017

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Market Insight Commentary – Forex

Today’s News Headlines

  • There are rumours this morning that the DUP in Northern Ireland have agreed with the UK to some form of border concession between itself and the Republic of Ireland. This has clearly been the catalyst for the cable move.

Market Insight Commentary – Indices

Market Recap

We finally got a little bit of volatility yesterday, although it was very much in the New York session more than anything else – with much of the moves coming late on in the evening. The London session seems very much fixated on the Brexit outcome and as a result all the pairs are just lingering, both the EURUSD and the GBPUSD have sharp movements every time that a major headline is released on the wires. There are still 2 major hurdles to the final settlement and it would seem that one of those hurdles may have been cleared late last night – this story still holds the possibility of being finalized this weekend, and as a result I am hesitant to even look at these pairs until Monday.

The EURUSD has steadily moved further away from the 100 day MA at 1.1795 and this will act as the key level to watch for both buyers and sellers today. This to me is a pure fundamental trade at the moment and the bias must be towards more weakness as settlement gets nearer. So with the 1.1795 defining the upside for now, I will be watching the key support levels at 1.1738 and 1.1711.

The big mover still seems to be Bitcoin with some reporting that the pair got as high as 20,000 yesterday before falling to 16,000 by the market close. This could do with the futures exchanges getting set up, this pair has doubled in a week – and last night we saw a 40% drop at the close. This volatility is not for me and so I continue to trade more conventional currency pairs.

We have covered some technical set ups in the morning video, but don’t forget that today is the US jobs report and it always brings with it some crazy moves. I will be sitting on the side lines today and so I will return to the market on Monday.

Important Economic Data Due Today

11:30                                         GBP                                             Manufacturing Production

Consensus:                             0.1%

Effect:                                        Actual higher than expected is good for the GBP

 

15:30                                         USD                                             Average Hourly Earnings

Consensus:                             0.3%

Effect:                                        Actual higher than expected is good for the USD

15:30                                         USD                                             Non-Farm Employment Change

Consensus:                             198K

Effect:                                        Actual higher than expected is good for the USD

 

15:30                                         USD                                              Unemployment Rate

Consensus:                             4.1%

Effect:                                        Actual lower than expected is good for the USD

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