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Despite a relatively light economic calendar the dollar closed relatively lower to the major pairs yesterday, the market will be focused on news out of Asia today as Trump tries to negotiate business deals with Japan. There will also be discussions on a strategy towards North Korea to look forward, there is a lot of geopolitical developments out of Saudi Arabia to digest – thus far, the oil market has run pretty hard as it contemplated reduced supply.
As expected the RBA left rates unchanged in Australia this morning, the pair had been flirting with the 200 day MA at 0.7697 over the last two weeks, albeit most of the volatility has been below. The market was hoping that the RBA statement would be the catalyst for the pair to break this buy or sell level. The key level to break above for the bulls to build some momentum is 0.7729, the major support level to watch today remains 0.7680 and a break will target 0.7625.
The USDJPY traded below its 200 hour MA at 114.05 yesterday, and this level now becomes a key level to watch this morning. Stay below the 114.00 and the sellers will start to get excited, the pair will need to break below 113.62 before the sellers feel any confidence. The top side resistance remains 114.50 and for me this seems a tough level to break.
The GBPUSD was a big mover yesterday, price broke above 1.3125 resistance and settled between major moving averages of 1.3164 and 1.3186. A move above that area will have traders looking towards 1.3250 but I would be looking to fade this move up there. I am watching this pair with some interest this morning as I suspect that there could be some opportunity here and possibly even a look to trade this below 1.3125 again.
There is a lot of event risk today and so pick your preferred trading pairs carefully.
Market Insight Commentary – Forex
In the Zone
- GBPUSD
- USDJPY
Market Insight Commentary – Indices
Important Economic Data out today
11:00 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
Consensus: None
Effect: More hawkish than expected is good for the EUR
19:55 CAD BOC Governor Poloz Speaks
Consensus: None
Effect: More hawkish than expected is good for the CAD
21:30 USD Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
Consensus: None
Effect: More hawkish than expected is good for the USD
Noteworthy News
- News yesterday of Disney to buy out 21st Century, the last thing the US equity markets need at the moment is a reason to run further.
