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Market Insight Commentary – 01 November 2017

01 Nov
forex

Market Insight Commentary – 01 November 2017

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This has been a week of Central Bank meetings and for the most part they have been somewhat contained, tonight we have event risk in the form of an FOMC meeting. Rates will be left on hold tonight but the market will be more concerned around the language and confirmation that rates will be raised in December. The big mover was the GBP yesterday, there is little doubt that the catalyst is on the back of the looming BOE meeting on Thursday, the ECB are expected to raise rates by 25bps and the market is pricing this is.

The commodity currencies are under some intense pressure at the moment, the NZDUSD was trading near a double bottom at 0.6817. A mix of support and a strong employment report early this morning saw the pair jump to resistance at 0.6920 – which is a big move in this pair. The major resistance still sits at 0.6950 and I suspect that there may be some offers building ahead of the FOMC tonight.

For a 4th consecutive day the AUDUSD was unable to break above the 200 day MA at 0.7695, it did have another attempt yesterday but failed. The key level on the bottom side remains at 0.7642 and this range seems to be pretty precarious. It has to break towards either side, the event risk this evening could be the catalyst for it.

The USDCAD held support at the 100 hour MA, the GDP report came out a little bit weaker than expected and the pair rallied. It found resistance at 1.2916 and this has created a double top for now, the bulls will be looking for momentum this afternoon and this will be a make or break level to watch this afternoon.

The New York session will be an interesting one today, we are aware of the event risk in the form of the FOMC meeting. I am wanting to see how the market reacts to the terror attack in NYC last night.

Market Insight Commentary – Forex

In the Zone

  • GBPUSD
  • AUDUSD
  • USDCAD

Market Insight Commentary – Indices

Important Economic Data out today

11:30                                         GBP                                             Manufacturing PMI

Consensus:                             55.8

Effect:                                        Higher than expected is good for the GBP

 

14:15                                         USD                                             ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

Consensus:                             202K

Effect:                                        Actual higher than expected is good for the USD

 

16:00                                         USD                                             ISM Manufacturing PMI 

Consensus:                             59.5

Effect:                                        Actual higher than expected is good for the USD

 

16:30                                         USD                                             Crude Oil Inventories

Consensus:                             -1.5M

Effect:                                        No consistent effect on the USD

 

20:00                                         USD                                             FOMC Statement

Consensus:                             None

Effect:                                        More hawkish than expected is good for the USD

 

22:15                                         CAD                                            BOC Governor Poloz Speaks

Consensus:                             None

Effect:                                        More hawkish than expected is good for the CAD

Noteworthy News

  • Terror attack in New York last night, 8 confirmed dead and 15 wounded thus far. Will be looking for the dollar reaction this morning.