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Dean Forex Market Commentary – 23 December 2016

23 Dec
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Dean Forex Market Commentary – 23 December 2016

As traders start preparing for the holiday week ahead so trading activity becomes more limited, I suspect that this may continue into the New Year. As we have got closer to Christmas weekend so all the pairs and instruments have become muted and ranges have got narrower. It seems as though price action is dominated by trade flows, it becomes difficult to trade as the nature of these flows can be unpredictable.

Dean’s Daily FX Update – 23 December 2016

 

In the Zone

  • GBPUSD
  • USDCAD

Noteworthy News

  • Can someone please confiscate Donald Trump’s cell phone? I am not sure that he has any idea how much influence his tweets can have as President of the US. Considering some of the careless things he tweets – the next 4 years could be extremely volatile.

Recap

The good news in the EURUSD is that we did not break lower and test the lows at 1.0365 yesterday, and that we did find some support at 1.0420. The bad news is that an attempt to break through resistance failed yesterday and sellers are still very willing to lean against the 1.0465 resistance level. Today it seems to me that price should trade between the 200 hour MA and the 100 hour MA which trades at 1.0487 and 1.0420, the bulls will need EUR to remain above 1.0420 into the New Year to be cheerful, anything lower and I suspect that the sellers could wreak havoc in the coming months.

The USDJPY went into hibernation yesterday and the trading range on the entire day was a little more than 50 pips. After such a steep move since the US election, the holiday season has come at the wrong time for JPY traders, there is not enough liquidity in the market to drive this pair through support. The lows this week have been higher every day and this is a bullish sign, the market is definitely undecided on this pair and whilst I suspect that this could be one of the early movers in 2017 – I am not sure in which direction.

The USDCAD experienced a pretty weak CPI number yesterday and this was the catalyst to drive this pair higher – despite the bounce in oil prices. The high yesterday was at 1.3520 which is close to the highs we last saw a month ago, normally I wouldn’t hesitate to look for shorts at these levels but with reduced action I am not willing to get in the market just yet.

The NZDUSD is like a yo-yo this week, it is trading in a very tight range and yesterday’s range was about 30 pips. Like the USDJPY the market here is undecided and the decision may only come to the fray in early 2017.

Trading at this time of year can be tough and in many ways frustrating, sometimes your best trading decisions are the ones when you decide not to trade, and this week definitely has that feel. We will be with you next week but I suspect that liquidity won’t pick up until January.

To all clients I hope that you have a Merry Christmas/Happy Holidays.

Daily Ranges 23/12/2016

Majors

EURUSD

Resistance                                        1.0440 – 1.0460

Support                                             1.0365 – 1.0350

GBPUSD

Resistance                                        1.2360 – 1.2390

Support                                             1.2280 – 1.2360

AUDUSD

Resistance                                        0.7240 – 0.7265

Support                                             0.7200 – 0.7180

NZDUSD

Resistance                                        0.6940 – 0.6960

Support                                             0.6890 – 0.6880

USDCAD

Resistance                                        1.3500 – 1.3520

Support                                             1.3420 – 1.3400

USDJPY

Resistance                                        118.13 – 118.37

Support                                             117.10 – 116.77

USDCHF

Resistance                                        1.0288 – 1.0300

Support                                             1.0230 – 1.0200

Rand

USDZAR

Resistance                                        14.0785 – 14.1210

Support                                             13.9140 – 13.8527

EURZAR

Resistance                                        14.6620 – 14.6919

Support                                             14.5000 – 14.4542

GBPZAR

Resistance                                        17.3750 – 17.4140

Support                                             17.1840 – 17.1270

Minors

AUDCAD

Resistance                                        0.9729 – 0.9748

Support                                             0.9680 – 0.9660

AUDJPY

Resistance                                        85.42 – 85.63

Support                                             84.86 – 84.63

EURCHF

Resistance                                        1.0706 – 1.0711

Support                                             1.0682 – 1.0667

EURGBP

Resistance                                        0.8490 – 0.8520

Support                                             0.8410 – 0.8400

EURJPY

Resistance                                        122.80 – 122.91

Support                                             122.10 – 121.92

GBPJPY

Resistance                                        145.71 – 146.00

Support                                             144.29 – 144.10

GBPCAD

Resistance                                        1.6601 – 1.6617

Support                                             1.6514 – 1.6480

GBPCHF

Resistance                                        1.2650 – 1.2670

Support                                             1.2590 – 1.2580

CADCHF

Resistance                                        0.7645 – 0.7670

Support                                             0.7590 – 0.7560

Indices

DE30

Resistance                                        11473 – 11500

Support                                             11378 – 11352

UK100

Resistance                                        7055 – 7077

Support                                             7000 – 6980

US500

Resistance                                        2270 – 2300

Support                                             2264 – 2256

US30

Resistance                                        19980 – 20000

Support                                             19900 – 19850

SA40

Resistance                                        44400 – 44500

Support                                             43500 – 43000

Commodities

BRENT

Resistance                                        55.45 – 55.69

Support                                             54.30 – 54.00

XAUUSD

Resistance                                        1138.00 – 1141.11

Support                                             1128.10 – 1122.75

XAGUSD

Resistance                                        16.17 – 16.28

Support                                             15.80 – 15.63

Important Economic Data out today

  • 15:30                    USD                      Average Hourly Earnings
  • 15:30                    USD                      Non-Farm Employment Change
  • 15:30                    USD                      Unemployment Rate

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