Dean's Daily FX Update – 20 December 2016
In the Zone
- GBPUSD
- AUDUSD
- NZDUSD
Noteworthy News
- First a Russian ambassador is shot and killed in Turkey and shortly afterwards a bus ploughs through a Christmas market in Berlin. This type of geopolitical risk often means traders climb into the USD.
Recap
Holiday trading can always be a tough task, lower liquidity means that price can be pulled around by the slightest thing. The dollar was still fairly strong against most pairs yesterday, although not to the same vicious magnitude that we had after the US Elections. Just as we had to cautiously wait our opportunity then, so we will have to now. This is a game of patience, if you are in the market, wait for price to come to your levels.
The EURUSD traded as we predicted yesterday – which is not a good thing! 1.0465 was a key resistance level that we were watching and price reversed exactly there yesterday and is trading slightly lower than 1.0400. There have been some buyers willing to get involved here, keeping in mind that the low last week was at 1.0365 I would be hesitant to go long just yet. Yesterday’s stance still holds today for me, I will let someone else pick the bottom here and sit on the side lines in this pair.
We discussed yesterday that the JPY pairs may be the ones to watch this week and this definitely holds true after yesterday. It seems that the market have drawn a line in the sand at 118.50 and will lean against that level to look for shorts. The USDJPY seemed to be really looking like making some headway and traded all the way down to 116.50 before it found support and bounced above 117.00. We did have some geopolitical events unfold in both Turkey and Germany last night and one wonders how much of the USD bounce was on the back of that. The BOJ (Bank of Japan) left rates on hold this morning and improved the economic outlook – this has surprisingly put the JPY under pressure but I would look for sellers to re-establish shorts.
The USDCAD will be affected by the oil prices and it was under a little bit of pressure yesterday, I am undecided on this pair this morning. Although the move looks overdone and a retracement in the offering, oil looks as though we could trade below a major support level today which would force the loonie higher. I am cautious in this pair today and so will look at opportunities in the AUD and NZD, which we discuss in the morning video.
Daily Ranges 20/12/2016
Majors
EURUSD
Resistance 1.0456 – 1.0478
Support 1.0380 – 1.0350
GBPUSD
Resistance 1.2470 – 1.2497
Support 1.2376 – 1.2340
AUDUSD
Resistance 0.7294 – 0.7309
Support 0.7239 – 0.7205
NZDUSD
Resistance 0.6980 – 0.7000
Support 0.6914 – 0.6900
USDCAD
Resistance 1.3420 – 1.3455
Support 1.3340 – 1.3320
USDJPY
Resistance 117.90 – 118.16
Support 116.90 – 116.65
USDCHF
Resistance 1.0300 – 1.0315
Support 1.0230 – 1.0200
Rand
USDZAR
Resistance 14.1640 – 14.2019
Support 13.9806 – 13.9340
EURZAR
Resistance 14.7350 – 14.7600
Support 14.5965 – 14.5500
GBPZAR
Resistance 17.5580 – 17.7050
Support 17.3760 – 17.3330
Minors
AUDCAD
Resistance 0.9745 – 0.9762
Support 0.9707 – 0.9680
AUDJPY
Resistance 85.50 – 85.74
Support 85.00 – 84.78
EURCHF
Resistance 1.0714 – 1.0725
Support 1.0660 – 1.0620
EURGBP
Resistance 0.8415 – 0.8440
Support 0.8370 – 0.8360
EURJPY
Resistance 122.63 – 122.81
Support 121.90 – 122.42
GBPJPY
Resistance 146.26 – 146.50
Support 145.25 – 145.00
GBPCAD
Resistance 1.6659 – 1.6680
Support 1.6565 – 1.6540
GBPCHF
Resistance 1.2740 – 1.2755
Support 1.2690 – 1.2677
CADCHF
Resistance 0.7670 – 0.7685
Support 0.7630 – 0.7620
Indices
DE30
Resistance 11427 – 11483
Support 11290 – 11245
UK100
Resistance 7010 – 7033
Support 6945 – 6926
US500
Resistance 2270 – 2300
Support 2230 – 2200
US30
Resistance 19912 – 19960
Support 19834 – 19800
SA40
Resistance 44300 – 44500
Support 43500 – 43000
Commodities
BRENT
Resistance 55.60 – 55.90
Support 54.20 – 53.70
XAUUSD
Resistance 1144.00 – 1150.11
Support 1130.10 – 1127.75
XAGUSD
Resistance 16.17 – 16.28
Support 15.80 – 15.63
Important Economic Data out today
- Tentative NZD GDT Price Index
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