The four commodity currencies we cover are on the radar today. The Fed rate decision last week hammered these forex pairs and so we are looking for a reaction in these (USDCAD, AUSUSD, NZDUSD and USDZAR). Be careful as the liquidity might be light leading into Christmas.
Dean's Daily FX Update – 19 December 2016
In the Zone
- AUDUSD
- NZDUSD
- USDCAD
- USDJPY
- USDZAR
Noteworthy News
- New out of Copenhagen last night and the Danish Minister is expecting EU countries to survive off a smaller budget after Brexit. After all the attempted bullying from the EU, it seems that they are starting to realize that Britain is going to leave a EUR 8 bln hole. As if the EUR needed more bad news!
Recap
I was expecting the market liquidity to start drying up ahead of Christmas this weekend, but judging by trading in the Asian Pacific session we still have a little bit of action. Much of the flow this morning was on the back of some strong economic data coming out of New Zealand, Japan and Australia. It may be just a late after thought and we will probably have to wait for the London session to open to see if there is any follow through, but there has been some active currency movement this morning.
The EURUSD saw an early morning bounce and traded as high as 1.0470, keep in mind that 1.0465 is a major resistance level to watch. We have battled at this level already and price has traded below resistance again. We are trading in unchartered territory at the moment, we don’t have any historical support levels to trade from. I will let someone else pick the bottom in this pair and for this reason I will sit this pair out.
GBPUSD did have another look at 1.2500 this morning but found some resistance and is since trading at 1.2480. Of all the major pairs I would expect cable to have a test higher against the dollar, perhaps another test of major MA levels closer to 1.2700. It seems to have formed a range between 1.2500 and 1.2400 for now, and I will look for a break higher for confirmation.
With stronger economic data as its catalyst, the USDJPY has traded stronger this morning and has broken its first support level at 117.40 – is this finally the week that the JPY stages a fight back? Our next major support levels are at 116.90 and a break lower here will open the door for a test closer to 115.00. My gut says that this is the pair to watch this week.
Metal prices are looking to make a recovery this morning and this may aid the commodity currencies after a major move last week. This is where I see some possible opportunity this morning and I have covered the commodity currencies in more detail in this morning’s video.
Daily Ranges 19/12/2016
Majors
EURUSD
Resistance 1.0476 – 1.0491
Support 1.0400 – 1.0383
GBPUSD
Resistance 1.2515 – 1.2548
Support 1.2410 – 1.2380
AUDUSD
Resistance 0.7329 – 0.7340
Support 0.7285 – 0.7265
NZDUSD
Resistance 0.7025 – 0.7050
Support 0.6975 – 0.6950
USDCAD
Resistance 1.3380 – 1.3395
Support 1.3310 – 1.3290
USDJPY
Resistance 118.40 – 118.60
Support 117.20 – 116.85
USDCHF
Resistance 1.0300 – 1.0315
Support 1.0230 – 1.0200
Rand
USDZAR
Resistance 14.1040 – 14.1460
Support 13.9106 – 13.8445
EURZAR
Resistance 14.6950 – 14.7330
Support 14.5645 – 14.5000
GBPZAR
Resistance 17.5580 – 17.7050
Support 17.3060 – 17.2611
Minors
AUDCAD
Resistance 0.9765 – 0.9782
Support 0.9715 – 0.9705
AUDJPY
Resistance 86.50 – 86.74
Support 85.47 – 85.08
EURCHF
Resistance 1.0742 – 1.0765
Support 1.0710 – 1.0700
EURGBP
Resistance 0.8399 – 0.8410
Support 0.8356 – 0.8334
EURJPY
Resistance 123.43 – 123.61
Support 122.70 – 122.32
GBPJPY
Resistance 147.46 – 147.60
Support 146.30 – 145.96
GBPCAD
Resistance 1.6687 – 1.6710
Support 1.6565 – 1.6540
GBPCHF
Resistance 1.2830 – 1.2848
Support 1.2750 – 1.2737
CADCHF
Resistance 0.7711 – 0.7727
Support 0.7670 – 0.7645
Indices
DE30
Resistance 11427 – 11483
Support 11288 – 11220
UK100
Resistance 7010 – 7033
Support 6945 – 6926
US500
Resistance 2270 – 2300
Support 2230 – 2200
US30
Resistance 19912 – 19960
Support 19834 – 19800
SA40
Resistance 44500 – 44600
Support 43500 – 43000
Commodities
BRENT
Resistance 55.80 – 56.20
Support 54.20 – 53.70
XAUUSD
Resistance 1144.00 – 1150.11
Support 1130.10 – 1127.75
XAGUSD
Resistance 16.17 – 16.28
Support 15.80 – 15.63
Important Economic Data out today
- 11:00 EUR German Ifo Business Climate
High Risk Investment Warning: Trading foreign exchange and/or contracts for difference on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss in excess of your deposited funds and therefore, you should not speculate with capital that you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to trade the products offered by BlackStone Futures you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin. BlackStone Futures provides general advice that does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. The content of this Website must not be construed as personal advice. BlackStone Futures recommends you seek advice from a separate financial advisor. Please take the time to read our Risk Disclosure Notice.
