Daily Market Insight

After a tough week for risk currencies, the morning session was dominated by improving risk sentiment. In the aftermath of the meeting with the US and North Korea, the Asian country reiterated that the UN sanctions would need to be lifted before they would stop missile testing.
There seems to be some concern about the higher bond yields leading into the NFP data today, the fact that this surprised the market is actually surprising to me – you would surmise that something like this could happen after the hawkish tone in Powell’s speech on Wednesday night. This was the catalyst for the stock market to jitter somewhat and these type of narratives is what will continue to drive the USDJPY, the pair fell by about 70 or 80 pips and I continue to seek opportunity in these pairs.
Brexit is becoming the gift that keeps on giving, just when you think that the plot cannot thicken anymore – it does. The morning started pretty healthily for the pound but soon collapsed on the rumours that PM May was going to scrap the parliament vote on Tuesday. We then saw a myriad of headlines that ranged from the EU stating that the UK could revoke Article 50 to a very likely no deal scenario.
The “circus” continued yesterday with the US back tracking on threats on China to implement measure to protect their IP. There was only a tiny reprieve but at the end of the day it seems as though the dollar really is the king, the pressure on emerging markets is supporting the dollar. The issue with the dollar being so strong is that it is not going to make the trade situation any better – the debt markets are not liking what it is seeing and so volatility is reigning supreme.
Did you know that The Forex or FX Market derives its name from Foreign Exchange. It is essentially the exchange of currency (money) between two different countries. The FX market is the largest financial market in the world, and is open 24 hours per day, 5 days per week.
With little in the way of data to show some direction, and the market becoming bored of both the Brexit and trade war narrative – the morning was quiet. Instead it chose to focus on the Bank of Canada interest rate decision. The expectation was that rates would be left on pause for now, the market was prepared for a more dovish tone, and instead that tone was louder than that what was anticipated.
The major focus will be on comments made by Jerome Powell, there is talk that there could be further dovish comments to come from him – there is also a feeling that his comments could be the catalyst for the dollar to break through big technical levels.
It was a quiet morning yesterday with thin liquidity caused by the week-long holiday in Japan, there were some concerns of a “flash crash” because of it but it never materialized. The GDP report out of the US placed a little more emphasis on the inflation report.
The day started off quietly as there was nothing really much to move the markets, we have got used to a lot of direction with risk, but yesterday there was nothing much to guide it. In line with what has been happening around the world, the Swiss Central Bank joined the party by admitting that rates would remain negative for some time to come as they brace for a global slowdown.