Daily Market Insight

These constructive talks helped the EURUSD climb to levels above 1.1500, this will be major support from here and the pair looks as though there could be a strong push higher this morning. PM May mentioned that she was ready to compromise on the Irish border situation which is holding up the Brexit negotiations which led to a 50 pip jump – I’m not certain that she is going to be able to get this through parliament and I would not be surprised if the pound gives all these gains back. The CAD pairs were hit by poor economic data on Friday, I believe that these will all be knee jerk reactions and so I am looking to fade these moves this morning, technically they all look attractive with Fibonacci levels easing my mind.
As was expected the Democrats won the house in the US mod-term elections, and the Republicans managed to hold onto the Senate. The idea is that passing through legislation is going to be tougher for Donald Trump going forward and the markets feel that he will be reigned in somewhat going into the. Just like November 2016, the equity markets rallied and this can be attributed to the fact that the current trade war talk could be watered down a little.
There was again nothing much to move the market yesterday with a very light economic calendar, today may see some of the same – also bearing mind that the summer holidays are very much in full swing. The GBPUSD was the only real mover yesterday, the London session sold off cable for most of the morning while the pair found some support in the New York session. The pair bottomed at 1.2910 and managed to rally to 1.2950 – this is still short of the Friday close of 1.2998 and so the sellers still remain in pound seats (excuse the pun.)
There was some meaningful Brexit related news yesterday which included an extension of Article 50 as PM May continues working on a deal that she hopes will pass by March 12 – I hope that this is not an attempt to “kick the can down the road.”
Friday was all about the job numbers in the US which came in substantially lower, it may have only come in at 155k vs 198k expected, but keep in mind that last month the print was 260k. If you try and look at the number, it means that the US economy is still positive and growing, it is just growing at a slower month – the average is still well above the monthly average though.
Did you know that The Forex or FX Market derives its name from Foreign Exchange. It is essentially the exchange of currency (money) between two different countries. The FX market is the largest financial market in the world, and is open 24 hours per day, 5 days per week.
The underlying theme on Friday was some slight dollar weakness, it was mostly in the European session as traders looked to take profit from the recent run in the dollar. I am still battling to find much opportunity in the FX market and am still focusing my attention on both the Dax and the Oil market, watch the morning video to see exactly the levels I am looking at.
The retail sales number become extremely important this week as the Fed have been harping on about inflation breaking ceiling, the wage data did not support this view and so as a major driver for inflation – the market held out for yesterday’s release. The market headlines met expectation and there were small revisions, the dollar immediately started buying the dollar and since the report didn’t blow anyone away – it just shows me that traders are looking for any reason to buy the dollar.