Did you know: The Forex or FX Market derives its name from Foreign Exchange. It is essentially the exchange of currency (money) between two different countries. The FX market is the largest financial market in the world, and is open 24 hours per day, 5 days per week. Read More – Introduction To The Forex Market
Dean's Daily FX Update – 31 May 2017
In the Zone
- EURUSD
- NZDUSD
- USDJPY
- USDZAR
Noteworthy News
- With North Korea intent on developing the ICBM, it did not come as a surprise that the US started testing technology yesterday that could intercept these missiles. It is a shame that the world is getting to this place.
Recap
We mentioned yesterday that the US PCE may take more importance than what it normally does, the reason we highlighted this particular data set is after listening to the talking heads, it has become a favourite of the Fed in recent times. The PCE is an acronym for Personal Consumption Expenditure and is an alternative barometer of inflation, some feel that it is more accurate than the CPI as it is not weighted to a basket but actually calculated on expenditure.
The Fed are clearly using the PCE as an inflation target as opposed to CPI, it is becoming clearer that when they mention the inflation target of 2% – this is the one that they are targeting. The data come in at 1.5% and immediately the market started increasing odds of an interest rate hike in June, I have mentioned it before, but I am not convinced that we will see a hike in June – in fact in my opinion we will be lucky to see just one more this entire year. Although this reading came in as expected, it is still the lowest reading in 18 months, in other words inflation is going the wrong way and hence the reason for my doubt.
The EURUSD has been trading between the 100 and 200 hour MA of late which have converged to trade at 1.1187. The bulls will want to see a sustained move above this level to have the confidence to trade this pair higher. I have highlighted the 1.1205 level as the major resistance, we did have two attempts yesterday and failed. We may see the bulls have another attempt but I suspect that the bears are starting to wrestle the initiative away and we could see this pair trade lower today.
The weakness in the New York session allowed the USDJPY to trade below the psychological level at 111.00, there was a double bottom that formed at 110.85 last week and that is where we found some support today. The more these support levels hold, the more valid they become and this level will once again be monitored today, a break below will target 110.23 while another move higher will target 111.30.
The USDCAD battled again yesterday to find any direction and ended the day where it started – in the middle of the range. This pair will look to break this week, I suspect that we may trade lower and test 1.3425 and this is where this pair will stall. I will be interested in long set ups if price gets as low as this.
Daily Ranges 31/05/2017
Majors
EURUSD
Resistance 1.1180 – 1.1200
Support 1.1120 – 1.1110
GBPUSD
Resistance 1.2850 – 1.2870
Support 1.2800 – 1.2770
AUDUSD
Resistance 0.7470 – 0.7490
Support 0.7420 – 0.7400
NZDUSD
Resistance 0.7090 – 0.7110
Support 0.7050 – 0.7040
USDCAD
Resistance 1.3480 – 1.3500
Support 1.3400 – 1.3370
USDJPY
Resistance 111.20 – 111.40
Support 110.70 – 110.50
USDCHF
Resistance 0.9780 – 0.9800
Support 0.9720 – 0.9700
Rand
USDZAR
Resistance 13.1500 – 13.1850
Support 12.9870 – 12.9450
EURZAR
Resistance 14.6550 – 14.7000
Support 14.5140 – 14.4900
GBPZAR
Resistance 16.8680 – 16.9060
Support 16.6560 – 16.6260
Minors
AUDCAD
Resistance 1.0040 – 1.0050
Support 0.9990 – 0.9950
AUDJPY
Resistance 82.80 – 83.00
Support 82.30 – 82.10
EURCHF
Resistance 1.0910 – 1.0920
Support 1.0850 – 1.0830
EURGBP
Resistance 0.8720 – 0.8750
Support 0.8680 – 0.8660
EURJPY
Resistance 124.40 – 124.60
Support 123.35 – 123.15
GBPJPY
Resistance 143.10 – 143.30
Support 141.90 – 141.80
GBPCAD
Resistance 1.7320 – 1.7340
Support 1.7210 – 1.7200
GBPCHF
Resistance 1.2550 – 1.2570
Support 1.2480 – 1.2460
Indices
DE30
Resistance 12630 – 12650
Support 12550 – 12520
UK100
Resistance
Support
US500
Resistance 2418 – 2430
Support 2390 – 2380
US30
Resistance 21080 – 21000
Support 20900 – 20870
SA40
Resistance 48000 – 48200
Support 47500 – 47100
Commodities
BRENT
Resistance 52.40 – 52.60
Support 51.20 – 51.00
XAUUSD
Resistance 1260.00 – 1270.00
Support 1240.00 – 1220.00
XAGUSD
Resistance 17.40 – 17.60
Support 17.00 – 16.80
Download Our New Weekly Calendar
High Risk Investment Warning: Trading foreign exchange and/or contracts for difference on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss in excess of your deposited funds and therefore, you should not speculate with capital that you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to trade the products offered by BlackStone Futures you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin. BlackStone Futures provides general advice that does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. The content of this Website must not be construed as personal advice. BlackStone Futures recommends you seek advice from a separate financial advisor. Please take the time to read our Risk Disclosure Notice.