The USD was somewhat of a mixed bag yesterday with the New York session proving to be a bit of a dampener. We are still seeing some fallout from President Trumps travel ban that he placed on Friday, the FX market is very fickle and I it won’t be long before the dust settles. Media seems to be concerned about the growing protests from the public and the opposition party a like – to be honest, I think that there will be a protest no matter what Trump does.
Dean's Daily FX Update – 31 January 2017
In the Zone
- AUDUSD
- NZDUSD
- USDJPY
- USDCHF
Noteworthy News
- Some of the headlines out of the EU suggest that they are living in denial around Brexit, regardless of their feelings – it is going to happen and Europe need to accept that fact.
Recap
Considering that the economic data was somewhat decent yesterday, I would suggest that the main driver of the weaker dollar was the weaker equity market. From a technical analysis view point, everything suggests that the dollar is poised to stage a fight back today in a lot of the pairs.
The EURUSD is deceiving to the eye, it closed yesterday near unchanged, but there was a lot of flow in both directions. It traded in a 125 pip range yesterday which is big considering the recent flow in this pair. We closed the day at 1.0700 and have traded slightly lower this morning, I think that the main hurdle is still around 1.0710 – this is the level that bulls and bears will butt heads and will be a key level to watch, considering that there is a speech out of the ECB today I suspect that the sellers may prevail.
After an impressive performance last week the GBPUSD was due to take a breather, the concerning thing is that it is hanging on to that 100 day MA at 1.2500. Sustained price action below this level does suggest that the bears are in full control. The key levels to watch today will be 1.2475 – 1.2450 and a close below those levels will leave the sellers in a very strong position.
The commodity currencies are confused – this can be seen by the narrowing daily ranges. The dollar is hesitant to break against them and this could be due to the President Trump and some of the executive orders he is signing. There is divergence building in some of these pairs and we are approaching key Fibonacci levels – we discuss this more in the morning video.
Daily Ranges 31/01/2017
Majors
EURUSD
Resistance 1.0710 – 1.0730
Support 1.0660 – 1.0640
GBPUSD
Resistance 1.2560 – 1.2580
Support 1.2480 – 1.2450
AUDUSD
Resistance 0.7550 – 0.7570
Support 0.7525 – 0.7510
NZDUSD
Resistance 0.7290 – 0.7310
Support 0.7250 – 0.7240
USDCAD
Resistance 1.3142 – 1.3160
Support 1.3070 – 1.3050
USDJPY
Resistance 114.40 – 114.80
Support 113.20 – 113.00
USDCHF
Resistance 0.9980 – 1.0000
Support 0.9940 – 0.9925
Rand
USDZAR
Resistance 13.5680 – 13.6090
Support 13.4520 – 13.4130
EURZAR
Resistance 14.4930 – 14.5320
Support 14.3920 – 14.3500
GBPZAR
Resistance 16.9870 – 17.0000
Support 16.7860 – 16.7500
Minors
AUDCAD
Resistance 0.9910 – 0.9920
Support 0.9850 – 0.9830
AUDJPY
Resistance 86.40 – 86.60
Support 85.50 – 85.20
EURCHF
Resistance 1.0680 – 1.0700
Support 1.0640 – 1.0620
EURGBP
Resistance 0.8560 – 0.8580
Support 0.8510 – 0.8490
EURJPY
Resistance 122.40 – 122.60
Support 121.40 – 121.10
GBPJPY
Resistance 143.40 – 143.70
Support 141.70 – 141.50
GBPCAD
Resistance 1.6480 – 1.6500
Support 1.6370 – 1.6350
GBPCHF
Resistance 1.2530 – 1.2550
Support 1.2425 – 1.2400
Indices
DE30
Resistance 11780 – 11790
Support 11650 – 11620
UK100
Resistance 7160 – 7180
Support 7100 – 7090
US500
Resistance 2290 – 2300
Support 2270 – 2250
US30
Resistance 20030 – 20070
Support 19800 – 19600
SA40
Resistance 46900 – 47000
Support 45900 – 45700
Commodities
BRENT
Resistance 56.20 – 56.40
Support 55.20 – 55.00
XAUUSD
Resistance 1195.09 – 1200.00
Support 1180.00 – 1170.20
XAGUSD
Resistance 17.20 – 17.30
Support 16.90 – 16.70
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