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30 March 2017 – Dean Forex Market Commentary

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All the excitement of a possible Article 50 trigger has come and gone without even a whimper, the letter was signed in the Asian Pacific session and then later delivered to the EU. There was speeches from PM May in the UK as well as countless others, the good news is that the market did not even blink – this was old news. There will be up and downs as Brexit goes into negotiations with the EU around trade deals, this process is just starting but hopefully the market continues to behave in such a logical fashion.

Dean's Daily FX Update – 30 March 2017

Noteworthy News

  • Now that Article 50 has been triggered, I suspect that we could be in for some fun and games. Be on the lookout for headlines out of both the UK and EU that could derail the GBPUSD.

Recap

With the limelight firmly on the UK today, the EU took the opportunity to release a headlines stating that the ECB are, “Wary of making fresh policy shift in April.” I am sure this was released on the expectation that the EUR was going to strengthen yesterday, the market had other ideas however and the EURUSD came under some real pressure. The pair broke through support at 1.0800 which was the 200 hour MA and reached a low of 1.0750, there are some bids building around 1.0700 and I suspect that this will act as the first level of support.

I mentioned in yesterday’s video that I thought GBPUSD would be somewhat contained, but I did expect something a little weaker. Truth be told, the cable was an impressive performer yesterday considering the expectations. The pair was range bound for most of the day, the topside comes in at 1.2465 which is the 200 hour MA on the 4 hour chart and the lower level comes in at 1.2375 which is the 200 hour MA. I will be looking for the pair to break out of this range before I decide to trade, most traders are looking for reasons to short this pair, but I would be cautious – this pair has short squeeze written all over it.

The oil price finally found a pulse, albeit on weaker than expected crude oil inventory data out of the US, oil rebounded by over 2% on the release and this was the catalyst for the USDCAD to make some inroads against the dollar. USDCAD broke through both major support levels at 1.3365 and 1.3350, we are essentially where we were on Monday morning, there is a key MA trading at 1.3295 and I suspect this is where buyers will start leaning.

The USDZAR continues to be plagued by a cloud hanging over the Finance Minister, we have reports from the same source claiming both that he will be fired and also another that the minster will be spared. This will continue to weigh on the ZAR. The other commodity currencies spent the day treading water in a very tight range.

The pairs are giving conflicting views this morning, but we cover this in more detail in the morning video.

Daily Ranges 30/03/2017

Majors

EURUSD

Resistance                                        1.0820 – 1.0840

Support                                             1.0760 – 1.0740

GBPUSD

Resistance                                        1.2490 – 1.2520

Support                                             1.2410 – 1.2390

AUDUSD

Resistance                                        0.7660 – 0.7680

Support                                             0.7610 – 0.7590

NZDUSD

Resistance                                        0.7030 – 0.7050

Support                                             0.6990 – 0.6970

USDCAD

Resistance                                        1.3380 – 1.3400

Support                                             1.3310 – 1.3300

USDJPY

Resistance                                        111.19 – 111.30

Support                                             110.50 – 110.30

USDCHF

Resistance                                        0.9950 – 0.9970

Support                                             0.9880 – 0.9860

Rand

USDZAR

Resistance                                        13.0610 – 13.1050

Support                                             12.8950 – 12.8460          

EURZAR

Resistance                                        14.1225 – 14.1550

Support                                             13.8990 – 13.8500

GBPZAR

Resistance                                        16.2950 – 16.3370

Support                                             16.0530 – 16.0000

Minors

AUDCAD

Resistance                                        1.0237 – 1.0260

Support                                             1.0200 – 1.0180

AUDJPY

Resistance                                        85.00 – 85.15

Support                                             84.40 – 84.20

EURCHF

Resistance                                        1.0720 – 1.0740

Support                                             1.0700 – 1.0680

EURGBP

Resistance                                        0.8690 – 0.8720

Support                                             0.8630 – 0.8600

EURJPY

Resistance                                        120.00 – 120.20

Support                                             119.50 – 119.20

GBPJPY

Resistance                                        138.40 – 138.60

Support                                             137.50 – 137.20

GBPCAD

Resistance                                        1.6700 – 1.6730

Support                                             1.6560 – 1.6520

GBPCHF

Resistance                                        1.2390 – 1.2420

Support                                             1.2320 – 1.2300

Indices

DE30

Resistance                                        12200 – 12240

Support                                             12090 – 12070

UK100

Resistance                                        7370 – 7390

Support                                             7310 – 7290

US500

Resistance                                        2360 – 2480

Support                                             2330 – 2310

US30

Resistance                                        20700 – 20750

Support                                             20550 – 20500

SA40

Resistance                                        46100 – 46500

Support                                             45100 – 45000

Commodities

BRENT

Resistance                                        52.60 – 52.80

Support                                             51.20 – 51.00

XAUUSD

Resistance                                        1255.00 – 1260.00

Support                                             1240.00 – 1220.00

XAGUSD

Resistance                                        18.10 – 18.40

Support                                             17.70 – 17.50

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