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All the excitement of a possible Article 50 trigger has come and gone without even a whimper, the letter was signed in the Asian Pacific session and then later delivered to the EU. There was speeches from PM May in the UK as well as countless others, the good news is that the market did not even blink – this was old news. There will be up and downs as Brexit goes into negotiations with the EU around trade deals, this process is just starting but hopefully the market continues to behave in such a logical fashion.
Dean's Daily FX Update – 30 March 2017
Noteworthy News
- Now that Article 50 has been triggered, I suspect that we could be in for some fun and games. Be on the lookout for headlines out of both the UK and EU that could derail the GBPUSD.
Recap
With the limelight firmly on the UK today, the EU took the opportunity to release a headlines stating that the ECB are, “Wary of making fresh policy shift in April.” I am sure this was released on the expectation that the EUR was going to strengthen yesterday, the market had other ideas however and the EURUSD came under some real pressure. The pair broke through support at 1.0800 which was the 200 hour MA and reached a low of 1.0750, there are some bids building around 1.0700 and I suspect that this will act as the first level of support.
I mentioned in yesterday’s video that I thought GBPUSD would be somewhat contained, but I did expect something a little weaker. Truth be told, the cable was an impressive performer yesterday considering the expectations. The pair was range bound for most of the day, the topside comes in at 1.2465 which is the 200 hour MA on the 4 hour chart and the lower level comes in at 1.2375 which is the 200 hour MA. I will be looking for the pair to break out of this range before I decide to trade, most traders are looking for reasons to short this pair, but I would be cautious – this pair has short squeeze written all over it.
The oil price finally found a pulse, albeit on weaker than expected crude oil inventory data out of the US, oil rebounded by over 2% on the release and this was the catalyst for the USDCAD to make some inroads against the dollar. USDCAD broke through both major support levels at 1.3365 and 1.3350, we are essentially where we were on Monday morning, there is a key MA trading at 1.3295 and I suspect this is where buyers will start leaning.
The USDZAR continues to be plagued by a cloud hanging over the Finance Minister, we have reports from the same source claiming both that he will be fired and also another that the minster will be spared. This will continue to weigh on the ZAR. The other commodity currencies spent the day treading water in a very tight range.
The pairs are giving conflicting views this morning, but we cover this in more detail in the morning video.
Daily Ranges 30/03/2017
Majors
EURUSD
Resistance 1.0820 – 1.0840
Support 1.0760 – 1.0740
GBPUSD
Resistance 1.2490 – 1.2520
Support 1.2410 – 1.2390
AUDUSD
Resistance 0.7660 – 0.7680
Support 0.7610 – 0.7590
NZDUSD
Resistance 0.7030 – 0.7050
Support 0.6990 – 0.6970
USDCAD
Resistance 1.3380 – 1.3400
Support 1.3310 – 1.3300
USDJPY
Resistance 111.19 – 111.30
Support 110.50 – 110.30
USDCHF
Resistance 0.9950 – 0.9970
Support 0.9880 – 0.9860
Rand
USDZAR
Resistance 13.0610 – 13.1050
Support 12.8950 – 12.8460
EURZAR
Resistance 14.1225 – 14.1550
Support 13.8990 – 13.8500
GBPZAR
Resistance 16.2950 – 16.3370
Support 16.0530 – 16.0000
Minors
AUDCAD
Resistance 1.0237 – 1.0260
Support 1.0200 – 1.0180
AUDJPY
Resistance 85.00 – 85.15
Support 84.40 – 84.20
EURCHF
Resistance 1.0720 – 1.0740
Support 1.0700 – 1.0680
EURGBP
Resistance 0.8690 – 0.8720
Support 0.8630 – 0.8600
EURJPY
Resistance 120.00 – 120.20
Support 119.50 – 119.20
GBPJPY
Resistance 138.40 – 138.60
Support 137.50 – 137.20
GBPCAD
Resistance 1.6700 – 1.6730
Support 1.6560 – 1.6520
GBPCHF
Resistance 1.2390 – 1.2420
Support 1.2320 – 1.2300
Indices
DE30
Resistance 12200 – 12240
Support 12090 – 12070
UK100
Resistance 7370 – 7390
Support 7310 – 7290
US500
Resistance 2360 – 2480
Support 2330 – 2310
US30
Resistance 20700 – 20750
Support 20550 – 20500
SA40
Resistance 46100 – 46500
Support 45100 – 45000
Commodities
BRENT
Resistance 52.60 – 52.80
Support 51.20 – 51.00
XAUUSD
Resistance 1255.00 – 1260.00
Support 1240.00 – 1220.00
XAGUSD
Resistance 18.10 – 18.40
Support 17.70 – 17.50
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