There are some conflicting signals emerging on some the major FX pairs. The dollar weakness we were expecting yesterday did not quite follow through from the Asian session. Today we are looking at two of the “safe-haven” currencies to see if anything emerges.
Dean's Daily FX Update – 29 November 2016
In the Zone
- USDJPY
- USDCHF
Noteworthy News
- Despite the encouraging news out of the oil producing countries of late, the first day of meetings closed yesterday with no agreement. Is this a sign of things to come? If there is no agreement we could see some real softening in the Oil market.
Recap
To make comparison from my daughters favourite book – “The Three Little Pigs”. The USD seemed like the house made of the bricks yesterday, the market huffed and puffed, but the USD was solid and could not be blown away. It is no secret that I have been waiting for a correction in all pairs against the USD and thought that yesterday was “DDAY,” whilst we were able to make pips it was certainly not the move that I was waiting for.
The oil market continues to dominate the headlines and we really are in the middle of a, “will they or won’t they tug of war.” There were signs of discontentment brewing but these were all brushed aside on a headline that Iraq was ready to cooperate – it is largely thought that a positive deal does hinge on Iran. I would expect more market moving headlines today and this could create volatility in the USDCAD.
The EURUSD has formed a tight range in the last couple of days between 1.0620 and 1.0565. We did attempt to have a break on the top side but ultimately it could not close through that resistance level, I get the feeling that this will be the key if the EUR is going to make a move for it.
For the first time since the US Election result the GBPUSD was the weak link, and it wasn’t anything other than the usual Brexit concerns (remember that). There was a hefty 100 pip retracement in the New York session and I think the top side of this pair 1.2515 remains intact for now. I continue to sit this pair out.
The commodity currencies enjoyed a fairly good day yesterday and there was some nice two way opportunity. Both the AUDUSD and the NZDUSD attempted to break out higher yesterday, but both were stopped in their tracks by some confluence in the form of daily Fibonacci retracement and resistance levels. Both pairs look as though they are going to attempt to have another look higher today, my concern is that they have had a candle close below a trend line which is bearish in nature.
The USDCAD is on the receiving end of the oil spill over, one headline moved this pair down to 1.3397 yesterday, only for the next headline to move back to 1.3450. From a technical view point this pair seems as though 1.3500 could be back on the cards today but I think this week we can forget about technical levels – this pair will move on fundamental data.
The star performer of the day for me was the USDZAR, despite a weaker gold price and a solid dollar, it still managed to trade lower to 13.7800. There is every indication that this pair could attempt to trade lower yet again and possibly have a test 13.5000 in the near future. I am cautious though as price is currently at 13.7800 which is the 61.8% daily fib retracement level and there could be some bids this morning.
Daily FX Ranges 29/11/2016
Majors
EURUSD
Resistance 1.0629 – 1.0639
Support 1.0576 – 1.0563
GBPUSD
Resistance 1.2450 – 1.2477
Support 1.2390 – 1.2350
AUDUSD
Resistance 0.7490 – 0.7505
Support 0.7450– 0.7440
NZDUSD
Resistance 0.7084 – 0.7100
Support 0.7050 – 0.7036
USDCAD
Resistance 1.3467 – 1.3500
Support 1.3400 – 1.3380
USDJPY
Resistance 112.52 – 112.79
Support 111.92 – 111.60
USDCHF
Resistance 1.0110 – 1.0122
Support 1.0075 – 1.0062
Selected FX Pairs
USDZAR
Resistance 13.9400 – 14.0000
Support 13.7200 – 13.5500
AUDCAD
Resistance 1.0067 – 1.0088
Support 1.0014 – 1.0000
EURCHF
Resistance 1.0740 – 1.0760
Support 1.0700 – 1.0680
EURGBP
Resistance 0.8544 – 0.8558
Support 0.8505 – 0.8490
EURJPY
Resistance 119.35 – 119.65
Support 118.70 – 118.30
GBPJPY
Resistance 140.00 – 140.40
Support 138.80 – 138.50
Commodity and Indices
XAUUSD
Resistance 1195.00 – 1200.40
Support 1185.64 – 1181.00
XAGUSD
Resistance 16.65 – 16.78
Support 16.44 – 16.30
DE30
Resistance 10680 – 10740
Support 10500 – 10450
UK100
Resistance 6860 – 6900
Support 6760 – 6730
US500
Resistance 2200 – 2205
Support 2196 – 2190
BRENT
Resistance 48.48 – 48.90
Support 47.18 – 46.80
Important Economic Data out today
- 15:30 USD Prelim GDP
- 17:00 USD Consumer Confidence
- 22:00 NZD RBNZ Financial Stability Report
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