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Lately, I sometimes feel as though I am watching one of those sports movies, you know the one, when the underdog looks defeated but raises up from the ashes to be victorious. That’s how the last month has felt. Fundamental trading in the form of economic data brings some predictable volatility. Politics is a whole different animal however and the peaks and troughs are equally more volatile and unpredictable.
Dean's Daily FX Update – 29 March 2017
Daily Ranges 29/03/2017
Majors
EURUSD
Resistance 1.0840 – 1.0860
Support 1.0780 – 1.0750
GBPUSD
Resistance 1.2500 – 1.2530
Support 1.2240 – 1.2220
AUDUSD
Resistance 0.7640 – 0.7660
Support 0.7610 – 0.7590
NZDUSD
Resistance 0.7010 – 0.7030
Support 0.6990 – 0.6970
USDCAD
Resistance 1.3400 – 1.3420
Support 1.3340 – 1.3320
USDJPY
Resistance 111.10 – 111.30
Support 110.30 – 110.00
USDCHF
Resistance 0.9930 – 0.9950
Support 0.9870 – 0.9850
Rand
USDZAR
Resistance 13.0610 – 13.1050
Support 12.7850 – 12.7460
EURZAR
Resistance 14.1525 – 14.1950
Support 13.8990 – 13.8500
GBPZAR
Resistance 16.2350 – 16.2670
Support 15.9730 – 15.9200
Minors
AUDCAD
Resistance 1.0225 – 1.0240
Support 1.0180 – 1.0150
AUDJPY
Resistance 84.90 – 85.00
Support 84.10 – 84.00
EURCHF
Resistance 1.0720 – 1.0740
Support 1.0700 – 1.0680
EURGBP
Resistance 0.8710 – 0.8740
Support 0.8630 – 0.8600
EURJPY
Resistance 120.40 – 120.60
Support 119.80 – 119.50
GBPJPY
Resistance 138.60 – 138.80
Support 137.20 – 137.00
GBPCAD
Resistance 1.6750 – 1.6780
Support 1.6560 – 1.6520
GBPCHF
Resistance 1.2360 – 1.2390
Support 1.2300 – 1.2280
Indices
DE30
Resistance 12170 – 12200
Support 12070 – 12030
UK100
Resistance 7360 – 7390
Support 7300 – 7270
US500
Resistance 2380 – 2400
Support 2320 – 2300
US30
Resistance 20700 – 20750
Support 20500 – 20470
SA40
Resistance 45900 – 4620
Support 45000 – 44800
Commodities
BRENT
Resistance 51.60 – 51.90
Support 50.60 – 50.00
XAUUSD
Resistance 1260.00 – 1275.00
Support 1240.00 – 1220.00
XAGUSD
Resistance 18.10 – 18.40
Support 17.70 – 17.50
Noteworthy News
- In the shadows of Article 50 today, Scotland has passed a second referendum to vote on Scoxit. This is becoming ridiculous now.
Recap
On Monday, the dollar was down and out after the healthcare reform was abandoned and the Republican Party was branded a wounded animal. Yesterday rumours started circulating that the Republicans and Democrats will work together to compromise on a healthcare reform, the Republicans have lifted themselves from the canvas and as a result so too did the dollar.
The focus today will be the trigger of Article 50 by PM May in the UK, although there may be some residual moves in all the major pairs, the bulk of the action will be in both the EUR and GBP. The GBPUSD did find a lot of resistance at 1.2600, there was a lot of selling late in the London session and this continued into the Asian Pacific session this morning. The pair will look at first support at 1.2390 but I suspect that there may be too much selling pressure for this level to hold. The flash crash in October established a low at 1.2100 and this level has been a pretty solid, I will sit this pair out today but would be tempted to have a look if we get to these lows.
The EURUSD crept higher and eventually found resistance at 1.0870, the pair traded as low as 1.0800 which is also where the market closed on Friday – chalk up another winning trade for the gap trading strategy. The market will start asking questions this morning, my gut say that this pair will trade in correlation with the GBP and it could come under a little bit of pressure this afternoon.
The USDJPY had formed a double bottom at 110.00 – something we highlighted in yesterday’s video. The pair did find some support again yesterday and marched as high as 111.00 as both stocks and treasury yields found some support, this morning the pair trades in the middle of its range and I will take direction from the dollar this afternoon.
I will be on the cautious side for the remainder of the week and will likely trade off the daily chart – this allows me to eliminate as much noise as possible. I will also have my creed at the back of mind, “if in doubt – stay out.”
Important Economic Data out today
Download Our New Weekly Calendar
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