Friday represented the end of President Trump’s first overseas visit which for the most part was a successful exercise, talk is that Trump did leave with an open mind, I suspect that is mere politicking because we have seen how prone he is to a shift in mind set pretty easily. None the less, he survived what some commentators have termed a “grilling” around both NATO and trade relationships at the G7 meetings. To his credit, Trump stuck to his principals that all members in NATO need to pay their share, fighting terrorism, promoting fair trade relationships with other members and including more voices to the forum. It is safe to say that most neutrals would agree with these principals, it is more the delivery of this message that has been lacking.
The EURUSD seemed to take the day off, but with both Germany and France on bank holiday on Friday, this could be explained. The trading range for the pair this week was 108 pips, the second lowest weekly range in over 3 years, this statement alone tells you how quiet the pair has been of late. The key upside level to watch next week for the buyers will be 1.1205, as they look to re-establish their dominance. On the downside the key level to watch will be 1.1160, and this was the floor tested earlier in the week, ECB President Draghi speaks on Monday and this speech could dictate the trend for the week.
The GPUSD was the laggard this week, with Friday proving to be particularly damaging to cable. Despite the tragic events in Manchester, it was the polls that created the most damage on Friday with the Labour Party showing to have made considerable ground against the Conservatives. PM May still has a lead, but she needs a convincing victory in this election to be able to negotiate a “soft” Brexit. The pair tested levels at 1.2774 on Friday and in the new week, we could see this level as our first major support, a move below this level will quickly target 1.2688 whilst a bounce would target 1.2830. I suspect that the pair may wander closer to 1.2850 next week and that this will be the defining levels for the sellers.
The USDJPY ended the week where it started and the only thing that we can take from this week is that the 200 hour MA at 111.55 is the ceiling, this MA is trending lower and this may suggest that a new downtrend is trying to form. The 100 hour MA is trading at 115.53 and the convergence of these levels will be keenly watched by traders in the new week. A week remaining below this level will be bearish for the pair. The key level on the downside will be 110.80.
The oil prices dictated the course of the USDCAD this week and the pair was able to break through the 100 hour MA at 1.3472, back below trend line support. This former support level becomes a key resistance level in the new week and rather pivotal, this pair has been in rally mode since the beginning of the month and so one would expect some of the short traders to bail out, and so buyers could start building bids at 1.3400.
The NZDUSD was the darling of the week as it closed at 0.7053, the first close above the 100 day MA since March 1. The pair did not push higher on Friday and this should raise a red flag to many traders, we have highlighted this level the entire week – there is no doubt that the buyers remain in control but I would watch for momentum at these levels, there could easily be a nice short trade setting up here.
Both the UK and the US are enjoying a bank holiday on Monday and so there could be some liquidity reduced price movements. Local developments are starting to grow with rumours of the ANC recalling President Zuma, it makes this weekend one to watch. In the meantime – we have the FA Cup Final to enjoy this weekend, “Come on the Gunners!!”
Weekly Ranges 29/05/2017 – 02/06/2017
Majors
EURUSD
Resistance 1.1240 – 1.1260
Support 1.1120 – 1.1100
GBPUSD
Resistance 1.2970 – 1.3000
Support 1.2800 – 1.2760
AUDUSD
Resistance 0.7500 – 0.7510
Support 0.7420 – 0.7400
NZDUSD
Resistance 0.7070 – 0.7090
Support 0.6970 – 0.6940
USDCAD
Resistance 1.3540 – 1.3560
Support 1.3420 – 1.3400
USDJPY
Resistance 112.10 – 112.30
Support 110.80 – 110.80
USDCHF
Resistance 0.9810 – 0.9830
Support 0.9680 – 0.9660
Rand
USDZAR
Resistance 13.1764 – 13.2250
Support 12.8670 – 12.8100
EURZAR
Resistance 14.8025 – 14.8325
Support 14.3755 – 14.3550
GBPZAR
Resistance 17.0630 – 17.1050
Support 16.4400 – 16.4000
Minors
AUDCAD
Resistance 1.0120 – 1.0140
Support 1.0050 – 1.0030
AUDJPY
Resistance 83.60 – 83.80
Support 82.60 – 82.40
EURCHF
Resistance 1.0950 – 1.0970
Support 1.0880 – 1.0860
EURGBP
Resistance 0.8720 – 0.8750
Support 0.8590 – 0.8570
EURJPY
Resistance 125.40 – 125.60
Support 124.10 – 123.90
GBPJPY
Resistance 145.20 – 145.40
Support 142.40 – 142.10
GBPCAD
Resistance 1.7520 – 1.7550
Support 1.7200 – 1.7170
GBPCHF
Resistance 1.2680 – 1.2700
Support 1.2460 – 1.2420
Indices
DE30
Resistance 12780 – 12800
Support 12600 – 12500
UK100
Resistance 7480 – 7500
Support 7340 – 7300
US500
Resistance 2410 – 2430
Support 2370 – 2350
US30
Resistance 21076 – 21100
Support 20830 – 20800
SA40
Resistance 48300 – 48500
Support 47200 – 47000
Commodities
BRENT
Resistance 53.70 – 54.00
Support 51.60 – 51.30
XAUUSD
Resistance 1266.20 – 1270.00
Support 1240.30 – 1230.10
XAGUSD
Resistance 17.30 – 17.50
Support 16.70 – 16.50
