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24 May 2017 – Dean Forex Market Commentary

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Dean's Daily FX Update – 24 May 2017

In the Zone

  • EURUSD
  • AUDUSD
  • NZDUSD
  • USDCAD
  • USDCHF

Noteworthy News

  • The UK has lifted their threat level from severe to critical, which means that an attack may be imminent. It also means that armed forces may be deployed at public events, you do get the impression that this is a passive policy.

Recap

We managed to see a late bounce in the dollar last night, I am asking the same question that I asked on Thursday last week – is this a “dead cat bounce” or is it the start of a dollar recovery? From where I sit the former is the most likely scenario, although this morning will be very telling – this move just has the same feeling as last week. I will admit that momentum is definitely slowing but the catalyst for the dollar run is a feeling that the US political cloud will lift and that the Fed will hike rates in June.

The market interpreted this from the bond and equity markets, we saw a sell-off in Treasuries which is a sign that safe haven flows are reversing. I do believe that the US political cloud will lift, President Trump has stuck to the script thus far in the Middle East and I do believe that the Democrats and Republicans will learn to work together. As far as the June rate hike – I am not convinced by this just yet.

The EURUSD traded down to 1.1183 from 1.1225 as part of the broad dollar move yesterday, and 1.1180 will be the big level to watch this morning. We do have event risk this afternoon but if the sellers are to gain any traction, there will need to be a sustained break below this pivotal level.

The USDJPY was trading near 111.10 as US traders got their desks after a morning of range bound trading. The pair did manage to trade as high as 111.90. Momentum is starting to fade a little bit here and I suspect that 112.00 may be a level where sellers may start building offers.

Often on days where we have so much event risk, I see if there are other pairs that I may trade against each other. Remember most pairs are derived with the dollar as the common denominator, I will then just look for the weakest currency and trade it against the strongest currency. On my radar this morning is the AUDNZD.

Daily Ranges 24/05/2017

Majors

EURUSD

Resistance                                          1.1230 – 1.1250

Support                                                1.1180 – 1.1160

GBPUSD

Resistance                                          1.2990 – 1.3010

Support                                                1.2950 – 1.2930

AUDUSD

Resistance                                          0.7490 – 0.7520

Support                                                0.7450 – 0.7430

NZDUSD

Resistance                                          0.7030 – 0.7040

Support                                                0.6970 – 0.6950

USDCAD

Resistance                                          1.3520 – 1.3540

Support                                                1.3480 – 1.3460

USDJPY

Resistance                                          111.90 – 112.20

Support                                                111.20 – 111.00

USDCHF

Resistance                                          0.9750 – 0.9770

Support                                                0.9700 – 0.9690

Rand

USDZAR

Resistance                                          13.2350 – 13.2900

Support                                                13.0000 – 12.9550           

EURZAR

Resistance                                          14.8050 – 14.8500

Support                                                14.5040 – 14.4500

GBPZAR

Resistance                                          17.1780 – 17.2060

Support                                                16.9060 – 16.8560

Minors

AUDCAD

Resistance                                          1.0110 – 1.0140

Support                                                1.0060 – 1.0040

AUDJPY

Resistance                                          83.50 – 83.70

Support                                                83.00 – 82.80

EURCHF

Resistance                                          1.0930 – 1.0940

Support                                                1.0900 – 1.0880

EURGBP

Resistance                                          0.8660 – 0.8680

Support                                                0.8600 – 0.8580

EURJPY

Resistance                                          125.20 – 125.50

Support                                                124.35 – 124.00

GBPJPY

Resistance                                          145.40 – 145.70

Support                                                144.20 – 144.00

GBPCAD

Resistance                                          1.7570 – 1.7600

Support                                                1.7490 – 1.7460

GBPCHF

Resistance                                          1.2660 – 1.2680

Support                                                1.2620 – 1.2600

Indices

DE30

Resistance                                          12680 – 12700

Support                                                12550 – 12520

UK100

Resistance                                         

Support                                               

US500

Resistance                                          2390 – 2410

Support                                                2360 – 2340

US30

Resistance                                          20870 – 20900

Support                                                20700 – 20680

SA40

Resistance                                          48400 – 48700

Support                                                47800 – 47600

Commodities

BRENT

Resistance                                          54.40 – 54.60

Support                                                53.40 – 53.10

XAUUSD

Resistance                                          1250.00 – 1270.00

Support                                                1240.00 – 1220.00

XAGUSD

Resistance                                          17.10 – 17.30

Support                                                16.80 – 16.60

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