Forex Market Preview

23 February 2017 – Dean Forex Market Commentary

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We endured a relatively slow day yesterday as the market eagerly waited on the release of the Fed minutes last night. I have mentioned before that I am not entirely certain as to what the forex market expects from this as it is always relatively known to the market. Once again the market was disappointed by the release, the overwhelming message was that a rate hike is coming ‘fairly soon’ – something that the market was well aware of and so I am not sure why we had this disappointment.

Dean's Daily FX Update – 23 February 2017

In the Zone

  • EURUSD
  • AUDUSD
  • USDCHF
  • USDZAR

Noteworthy News

  • Despite the news that Macron is the clear favourite leading into French polls, Le Pen actually made some in roads into that lead yesterday. These polls are going to get released every day for the next 3 months so practice caution if you are a EUR trader.

Recap

The EURUSD fell slightly below 1.0500 yesterday but it found some comfort on headlines that Macron has a lot of support leading into the French Presidential election. I am taking this news with a pinch of salt, and will wait for the results before drawing any conclusions. The pair is currently trading at short term resistance of 1.0570, it will need to break through these levels if it is test 1.0600 again.

For a second successive day, the GPUSD started the day on the back foot, it did try to hang on to the psychological level at 1.2500 but in the end it failed and traded down to 1.2410. It did stage a mini recovery on the Fed minutes and traded as high at 1.2450 which is in the middle of the range. This pair is still getting driven by potential Brexit implications and it is interesting to notice that the daily ranges in cable get more and more narrow as we get closer to the end of March, I continue to sit on the side lines in this pair.

The USDCAD finally found a little life in it yesterday, it took the weakest retails sales number in 9 months to move this pair. It immediately came under pressure and traded as high as 1.3230 before technical resistance levels kicked in and stopped momentum in its tracks. The pair did trade back to 1.3150 by the close, I would be interested to see how the pair reacts down at 1.3100 which was previous resistance last week.

We are seeing conflicting views on the USD this morning with some pairs looking to strengthen against the greenback, whilst some look to weaken. It has been a strange week and the market is possibly looking at what is coming out of the White House around immigration bans and tax cuts.

Daily Ranges 23/02/2017

Majors

EURUSD

Resistance                                        1.0580 – 1.0600

Support                                             1.0520 – 1.0500

GBPUSD

Resistance                                        1.2490 – 1.2500

Support                                             1.2420 – 1.2400

AUDUSD

Resistance                                        0.7690 – 0.7720

Support                                             0.7650 – 0.7630

NZDUSD

Resistance                                        0.7220 – 0.7250

Support                                             0.7160 – 0.7140

USDCAD

Resistance                                        1.3170 – 1.3200

Support                                             1.3120 – 1.3100

USDJPY

Resistance                                        113.60 – 113.80

Support                                             112.90 – 112.70

USDCHF

Resistance                                        1.0120 – 1.0140

Support                                             1.0060 – 1.0040

Rand

USDZAR

Resistance                                        13.1020 – 13.1330

Support                                             12.9860 – 12.9250          

EURZAR

Resistance                                        13.8100 – 13.8580

Support                                             13.7125 – 13.6600

GBPZAR

Resistance                                        16.3050 – 16.3490

Support                                             16.1880 – 16.1560

Minors

AUDCAD

Resistance                                        1.0110 – 1.0130

Support                                             1.0080 – 1.0050

AUDJPY

Resistance                                        87.50 – 87.70

Support                                             86.80 – 86.60

EURCHF

Resistance                                        1.0670 – 1.0690

Support                                             1.0630 – 1.0610

EURGBP

Resistance                                        0.8500 – 0.8530

Support                                             0.8425 – 0.8410

EURJPY

Resistance                                        119.80 – 120.00

Support                                             119.20 – 119.10

GBPJPY

Resistance                                        141.50 – 141.80

Support                                             140.60 – 140.20

GBPCAD

Resistance                                        1.6410 – 1.6430

Support                                             1.6330 – 1.6300

GBPCHF

Resistance                                        1.2620 – 1.2640

Support                                             1.2540 – 1.2520

Indices

DE30

Resistance                                        12000 – 12030

Support                                             11900 – 11870

UK100

Resistance                                        7310 – 7330

Support                                             7250 – 7230

US500

Resistance                                        2370 – 2390

Support                                             2340 – 2320

US30

Resistance                                        20770 – 20800

Support                                             20600 – 20550

SA40

Resistance                                        45800 – 45980

Support                                             45000 – 44800

Commodities

BRENT

Resistance                                        56.70 – 57.00

Support                                             55.90 – 55.50

XAUUSD

Resistance                                        1240.00 – 1250.00

Support                                             1225.00 – 1230.20

XAGUSD

Resistance                                        17.90 – 18.09

Support                                             17.70 – 17.50

Important Economic Data out today

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