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We endured a relatively slow day yesterday as the market eagerly waited on the release of the Fed minutes last night. I have mentioned before that I am not entirely certain as to what the forex market expects from this as it is always relatively known to the market. Once again the market was disappointed by the release, the overwhelming message was that a rate hike is coming ‘fairly soon’ – something that the market was well aware of and so I am not sure why we had this disappointment.
Dean's Daily FX Update – 23 February 2017
In the Zone
- EURUSD
- AUDUSD
- USDCHF
- USDZAR
Noteworthy News
- Despite the news that Macron is the clear favourite leading into French polls, Le Pen actually made some in roads into that lead yesterday. These polls are going to get released every day for the next 3 months so practice caution if you are a EUR trader.
Recap
The EURUSD fell slightly below 1.0500 yesterday but it found some comfort on headlines that Macron has a lot of support leading into the French Presidential election. I am taking this news with a pinch of salt, and will wait for the results before drawing any conclusions. The pair is currently trading at short term resistance of 1.0570, it will need to break through these levels if it is test 1.0600 again.
For a second successive day, the GPUSD started the day on the back foot, it did try to hang on to the psychological level at 1.2500 but in the end it failed and traded down to 1.2410. It did stage a mini recovery on the Fed minutes and traded as high at 1.2450 which is in the middle of the range. This pair is still getting driven by potential Brexit implications and it is interesting to notice that the daily ranges in cable get more and more narrow as we get closer to the end of March, I continue to sit on the side lines in this pair.
The USDCAD finally found a little life in it yesterday, it took the weakest retails sales number in 9 months to move this pair. It immediately came under pressure and traded as high as 1.3230 before technical resistance levels kicked in and stopped momentum in its tracks. The pair did trade back to 1.3150 by the close, I would be interested to see how the pair reacts down at 1.3100 which was previous resistance last week.
We are seeing conflicting views on the USD this morning with some pairs looking to strengthen against the greenback, whilst some look to weaken. It has been a strange week and the market is possibly looking at what is coming out of the White House around immigration bans and tax cuts.
Daily Ranges 23/02/2017
Majors
EURUSD
Resistance 1.0580 – 1.0600
Support 1.0520 – 1.0500
GBPUSD
Resistance 1.2490 – 1.2500
Support 1.2420 – 1.2400
AUDUSD
Resistance 0.7690 – 0.7720
Support 0.7650 – 0.7630
NZDUSD
Resistance 0.7220 – 0.7250
Support 0.7160 – 0.7140
USDCAD
Resistance 1.3170 – 1.3200
Support 1.3120 – 1.3100
USDJPY
Resistance 113.60 – 113.80
Support 112.90 – 112.70
USDCHF
Resistance 1.0120 – 1.0140
Support 1.0060 – 1.0040
Rand
USDZAR
Resistance 13.1020 – 13.1330
Support 12.9860 – 12.9250
EURZAR
Resistance 13.8100 – 13.8580
Support 13.7125 – 13.6600
GBPZAR
Resistance 16.3050 – 16.3490
Support 16.1880 – 16.1560
Minors
AUDCAD
Resistance 1.0110 – 1.0130
Support 1.0080 – 1.0050
AUDJPY
Resistance 87.50 – 87.70
Support 86.80 – 86.60
EURCHF
Resistance 1.0670 – 1.0690
Support 1.0630 – 1.0610
EURGBP
Resistance 0.8500 – 0.8530
Support 0.8425 – 0.8410
EURJPY
Resistance 119.80 – 120.00
Support 119.20 – 119.10
GBPJPY
Resistance 141.50 – 141.80
Support 140.60 – 140.20
GBPCAD
Resistance 1.6410 – 1.6430
Support 1.6330 – 1.6300
GBPCHF
Resistance 1.2620 – 1.2640
Support 1.2540 – 1.2520
Indices
DE30
Resistance 12000 – 12030
Support 11900 – 11870
UK100
Resistance 7310 – 7330
Support 7250 – 7230
US500
Resistance 2370 – 2390
Support 2340 – 2320
US30
Resistance 20770 – 20800
Support 20600 – 20550
SA40
Resistance 45800 – 45980
Support 45000 – 44800
Commodities
BRENT
Resistance 56.70 – 57.00
Support 55.90 – 55.50
XAUUSD
Resistance 1240.00 – 1250.00
Support 1225.00 – 1230.20
XAGUSD
Resistance 17.90 – 18.09
Support 17.70 – 17.50
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