Dean lays it on the line this morning with his views on the FOMC Meeting this evening. Suggests that there will be no hike tonight but the language will suggest that we WILL get a hike in December. He goes back to the ranges we started the week with to see how accurate they have been. Dean feels that “buy the rumour, sell the fact” may be in play.
Dean's Daily FX Update – 21 September 2016
In the EURUSD, we needed something to break it out its range. We got this move lower yesterday but as soon as we got down to 1.1122, we bounced straight back up. This came just after the Bank of Japan announcement.
In the GBPUSD, the market has been reasonably range bound, albeit, quite a big range. Since Brexit, we have traded between 1.3450 and 1.2850. Each time we have been to the upper and lower end of the range the market has reacted. We have seen quite a bit of strength from the USD in recent days and Dean is expecting a push back to the upside.
The AUDUSD is in the middle of the range and Dean expects a continuation of the move higher. He feels the upper range around 0.7650 would not be unreasonable. A similar move in the Kiwi is also expected.
The USDCAD is the one Forex pair that Dean was very interested in. He felt that a triple top was forming and multiple attempts at 1.3250 had all failed. We got a pullback yesterday and now trading 1.3180. He expects a continuation lower.
The USDJPY produced some fireworks this morning with the BOJ meeting and announcement. We nearly got down to our target of 100.97 and immediately bounced. Although Dean has not fully digested the meeting minutes, it seems the BOJ will continue to monitor the Yen and intervene if necessary. He expects a fairly neutral day for USDJPY but we may see some spikes.
The Rand (USDZAR) has been a very strong performer over the last few weeks against the USD. If you have been following his videos you will remember that he expected the gap to close after Pravin was threatened with arrest. We are not far off and now in an area of minor support. Dean still expects the Rand to strengthen a bit more but we will see how the USD reacts tonight.
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