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17 May 2017 – Dean Forex Market Commentary

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Dean's Daily FX Update – 17 May 2017

In the Zone

  • EURUSD
  • USDCAD
  • USDCHF
  • USDJPY

Noteworthy News

  • Another leak today about you know who, this time news that Comey has a memo around his discussions with Trump has cast a shadow over the White House. I am watching to see if there is anything else, Comey has said that he has made notes over every meeting he ever had in his role, this may force him to release notes on his investigation into the Clintons.

Recap

Who needs the Game of Thrones, when we have US politics to entertain us? Yesterday was dominated by the White House Administration reacting to the classified information shared with Russian delegates yesterday. It won’t get better this morning for President Trump as another story was leaked to the media that the now ex-FBI director Comey made meticulous notes around his meeting with Trump. If you consider that the US press was banned from the meeting with Russian delegates, there is clearly a leak in the White House.

Yesterday we saw the dollar weaken and I suspect it may weaken further on this new revelation this morning. The Democrats are talking impeachment already, although I don’t doubt that Vice President Pence may be better suited to the job, Trump has proved to be very resilient over the last 18 months and also seems to get up from the canvas – besides, although not the ethical thing to do I am not certain Trump has actually broken any laws. What this might do is put into question whether he will be able to get any of his promises through the Senate.

These latest scandals has seen the so called “safe haven” currencies take advantage and the EURUSD was no exception. The EUR was able to smash through trend line resistance at 1.0985 early in the day and continued to make new highs. The pair battled to get through the 1.1100 level yesterday but with last night’s leak, I suspect that this will be cannon fodder this morning. The 61.8% fib from May 2016 comes in at 1.1130 and I suspect that may be the next target. That will also be the most likely level for the bears to start building offers.

The USDJPY twice attempted to breach resistance at the 100 hour MA at 113.80, but it was not long before the pair crumbled and broke through the low side at 113.39 before consolidating around 112.91. This will be the key pivotal level to watch this morning but I do believe that this level will break and that near term support at 112.00 will be more likely. 112.00 becomes a big level as a break lower opens up last month’s lows below 110.00.

The rest of the pairs are covered in the morning video this morning, it sounds strange to say that we have had a pretty good week thus far – sometimes staying out horrendous trades feels as good as trading the corkers.

Daily Ranges 17/05/2017

Majors

EURUSD

Resistance                                          1.1106 – 1.1130

Support                                                1.1030 – 1.1010

GBPUSD

Resistance                                          1.2940 – 1.2960

Support                                                1.2890 – 1.2870

AUDUSD

Resistance                                          0.7420 – 0.7450

Support                                                0.7370 – 0.7350

NZDUSD

Resistance                                          0.6900 – 0.6920

Support                                                0.6840 – 0.6820

USDCAD

Resistance                                          1.3630 – 1.3650

Support                                                1.3580 – 1.3560

USDJPY

Resistance                                          112.90 – 113.10

Support                                                112.20 – 112.00

USDCHF

Resistance                                          1.0060 – 1.0080

Support                                                0.9820 – 0.9800

Rand

USDZAR

Resistance                                          13.1900 – 13.2500

Support                                                13.0550 – 13.0000           

EURZAR

Resistance                                          14.5740 – 14.6040

Support                                                14.4040 – 14.3500

GBPZAR

Resistance                                          17.0200 – 17.0700

Support                                                16.8750 – 16.8450

Minors

AUDCAD

Resistance                                          1.0120 – 1.0140

Support                                                1.0080 – 1.0060

AUDJPY

Resistance                                          84.00 – 84.10

Support                                                83.30 – 83.00

EURCHF

Resistance                                          1.0920 – 1.0940

Support                                                1.0900 – 1.0880

EURGBP

Resistance                                          0.8590 – 0.8620

Support                                                0.8520 – 0.8500

EURJPY

Resistance                                          125.20 – 125.40

Support                                                124.60 – 124.40

GBPJPY

Resistance                                          146.20 – 146.50

Support                                                145.10 – 144.80

GBPCAD

Resistance                                          1.7610 – 1.7630

Support                                                1.7530 – 1.7500

GBPCHF

Resistance                                          1.2750 – 1.2770

Support                                                1.2690 – 1.2670

Indices

DE30

Resistance                                          12800 – 12810

Support                                                12720 – 12700

UK100

Resistance                                         

Support                                               

US500

Resistance                                          2400 – 2420

Support                                                2380 – 2370

US30

Resistance                                          20920 – 20950

Support                                                20830 – 20800

SA40

Resistance                                          48000 – 48100

Support                                                47400 – 47500

Commodities

BRENT

Resistance                                          51.90 – 52.30

Support                                                51.10 – 51.00

XAUUSD

Resistance                                          1240.00 – 1250.00

Support                                                1220.00 – 1210.00

XAGUSD

Resistance                                          16.80 – 17.00

Support                                                16.50 – 16.30

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