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Dean's Daily FX Update – 17 May 2017
In the Zone
- EURUSD
- USDCAD
- USDCHF
- USDJPY
Noteworthy News
- Another leak today about you know who, this time news that Comey has a memo around his discussions with Trump has cast a shadow over the White House. I am watching to see if there is anything else, Comey has said that he has made notes over every meeting he ever had in his role, this may force him to release notes on his investigation into the Clintons.
Recap
Who needs the Game of Thrones, when we have US politics to entertain us? Yesterday was dominated by the White House Administration reacting to the classified information shared with Russian delegates yesterday. It won’t get better this morning for President Trump as another story was leaked to the media that the now ex-FBI director Comey made meticulous notes around his meeting with Trump. If you consider that the US press was banned from the meeting with Russian delegates, there is clearly a leak in the White House.
Yesterday we saw the dollar weaken and I suspect it may weaken further on this new revelation this morning. The Democrats are talking impeachment already, although I don’t doubt that Vice President Pence may be better suited to the job, Trump has proved to be very resilient over the last 18 months and also seems to get up from the canvas – besides, although not the ethical thing to do I am not certain Trump has actually broken any laws. What this might do is put into question whether he will be able to get any of his promises through the Senate.
These latest scandals has seen the so called “safe haven” currencies take advantage and the EURUSD was no exception. The EUR was able to smash through trend line resistance at 1.0985 early in the day and continued to make new highs. The pair battled to get through the 1.1100 level yesterday but with last night’s leak, I suspect that this will be cannon fodder this morning. The 61.8% fib from May 2016 comes in at 1.1130 and I suspect that may be the next target. That will also be the most likely level for the bears to start building offers.
The USDJPY twice attempted to breach resistance at the 100 hour MA at 113.80, but it was not long before the pair crumbled and broke through the low side at 113.39 before consolidating around 112.91. This will be the key pivotal level to watch this morning but I do believe that this level will break and that near term support at 112.00 will be more likely. 112.00 becomes a big level as a break lower opens up last month’s lows below 110.00.
The rest of the pairs are covered in the morning video this morning, it sounds strange to say that we have had a pretty good week thus far – sometimes staying out horrendous trades feels as good as trading the corkers.
Daily Ranges 17/05/2017
Majors
EURUSD
Resistance 1.1106 – 1.1130
Support 1.1030 – 1.1010
GBPUSD
Resistance 1.2940 – 1.2960
Support 1.2890 – 1.2870
AUDUSD
Resistance 0.7420 – 0.7450
Support 0.7370 – 0.7350
NZDUSD
Resistance 0.6900 – 0.6920
Support 0.6840 – 0.6820
USDCAD
Resistance 1.3630 – 1.3650
Support 1.3580 – 1.3560
USDJPY
Resistance 112.90 – 113.10
Support 112.20 – 112.00
USDCHF
Resistance 1.0060 – 1.0080
Support 0.9820 – 0.9800
Rand
USDZAR
Resistance 13.1900 – 13.2500
Support 13.0550 – 13.0000
EURZAR
Resistance 14.5740 – 14.6040
Support 14.4040 – 14.3500
GBPZAR
Resistance 17.0200 – 17.0700
Support 16.8750 – 16.8450
Minors
AUDCAD
Resistance 1.0120 – 1.0140
Support 1.0080 – 1.0060
AUDJPY
Resistance 84.00 – 84.10
Support 83.30 – 83.00
EURCHF
Resistance 1.0920 – 1.0940
Support 1.0900 – 1.0880
EURGBP
Resistance 0.8590 – 0.8620
Support 0.8520 – 0.8500
EURJPY
Resistance 125.20 – 125.40
Support 124.60 – 124.40
GBPJPY
Resistance 146.20 – 146.50
Support 145.10 – 144.80
GBPCAD
Resistance 1.7610 – 1.7630
Support 1.7530 – 1.7500
GBPCHF
Resistance 1.2750 – 1.2770
Support 1.2690 – 1.2670
Indices
DE30
Resistance 12800 – 12810
Support 12720 – 12700
UK100
Resistance
Support
US500
Resistance 2400 – 2420
Support 2380 – 2370
US30
Resistance 20920 – 20950
Support 20830 – 20800
SA40
Resistance 48000 – 48100
Support 47400 – 47500
Commodities
BRENT
Resistance 51.90 – 52.30
Support 51.10 – 51.00
XAUUSD
Resistance 1240.00 – 1250.00
Support 1220.00 – 1210.00
XAGUSD
Resistance 16.80 – 17.00
Support 16.50 – 16.30
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