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The day after a FOMC day is always a frustrating day, it become even more frustrating yesterday as the market tried to digest the message from the Fed. I think the market is fast losing patience with Yellen, she spent the last 2 weeks telling anyone that would listen how strong the US economy was, only to come across as dovish at the FOMC press conference. This confuses the market, and we could see this in yesterday’s price action.
Dean's Daily FX Update – 17 March 2017
In the Zone
- All major pairs
Noteworthy News
- We have a slew of Fed speeches next week, will the members reinforce the dovish tone of Yellen, or will they confuse the market even more with fighting talk?
Recap
The EURUSD had another strong performance yesterday, after the madness that ensued in 2016 the market was relieved by the result in the Dutch election. In addition to this, there was a headline on the wires by the ECB member Nowotny that we see the deposit rate could rise sent, this sent the EUR on another leg up. The pair closed the day at 1.0760, a close above 1.0775 will target the 2017 high at 1.0830. I am of the opinion that the EURUSD could retrace a little today after such a strong week, the key level for the bulls is 1.0715, as long as price remains above this area – the buyers will keep the initiative.
The BOE were surprisingly more hawkish than what we were expecting, with members indicating that they would be open to reducing stimulus. This news was the catalyst for the GBPUSD to have another bumper day, it is currently trading at 1.2360 but momentum is a little thin at the moment as it attempts an assault of 1.2400 resistance. The line in the sand in cable comes in at 1.2330, the buyers will want to stay above this level to hold the upper hand.
The USDJPY had multiple attempts at 113.00 yesterday and each time the price bounced. This morning we have confluence in the form of a 100 day MA trading at 113.05, although price has found support at these levels, the sellers will be encouraged to see that the top side was contained. Resistance comes in at 113.50, which is the 50% Fib on the 4H chart. I would like to see the price break this defined range before trading this pair.
There is a lot to digest in the morning video – for our Irish clients, have a good St Patricks day!
Daily Ranges 17/03/2017
Majors
EURUSD
Resistance 1.0760 – 1.0780
Support 1.0690 – 1.0670
GBPUSD
Resistance 1.2360 – 1.2380
Support 1.2260 – 1.2240
AUDUSD
Resistance 0.7700 – 0.7720
Support 0.7640 – 0.7620
NZDUSD
Resistance 0.7008 – 0.7020
Support 0.6950 – 0.6930
USDCAD
Resistance 1.3360 – 1.3380
Support 1.3280 – 1.3260
USDJPY
Resistance 113.80 – 113.90
Support 113.10 – 113.00
USDCHF
Resistance 1.0007 – 1.0020
Support 0.9958 – 0.9930
Rand
USDZAR
Resistance 12.9320 – 12.9650
Support 12.7280 – 12.6880
EURZAR
Resistance 13.8130 – 13.8550
Support 13.6720 – 13.6310
GBPZAR
Resistance 15.8370 – 15.8670
Support 15.6780 – 15.6320
Minors
AUDCAD
Resistance 1.0240 – 1.0260
Support 1.0200 – 1.0180
AUDJPY
Resistance 87.20 – 87.50
Support 86.60 – 86.40
EURCHF
Resistance 1.0730 – 1.0760
Support 1.0690 – 1.0670
EURGBP
Resistance 0.8730 – 0.8760
Support 0.8690 – 0.8680
EURJPY
Resistance 122.20 – 122.50
Support 121.50 – 121.10
GBPJPY
Resistance 140.00 – 140.20
Support 139.20 – 139.00
GBPCAD
Resistance 1.6450 – 1.6480
Support 1.6370 – 1.6340
GBPCHF
Resistance 1.2320 – 1.2350
Support 1.2250 – 1.2230
Indices
DE30
Resistance 12150 – 12200
Support 12035 – 11200
UK100
Resistance 7420 – 7450
Support 7370 – 7350
US500
Resistance 2380 – 2400
Support 2360 – 2340
US30
Resistance 20980 – 21020
Support 20860 – 20830
SA40
Resistance 44800 – 45000
Support 44100 – 43800
Commodities
BRENT
Resistance 52.60 – 52.90
Support 51.20 – 51.00
XAUUSD
Resistance 1230.00 – 1240.00
Support 1200.00 – 1180.00
XAGUSD
Resistance 17.30 – 17.50
Support 16.90 – 16.70
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