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17 February 2017 – Dean Forex Market Commentary

17 Feb
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17 February 2017 – Dean Forex Market Commentary

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Dean’s Daily FX Update – 17 February 2017

A little bit of the same medicine yesterday, stronger than expected US economic data and hawkish overtones out of the Fed. There was a call from the White House that President Trump would be holding a surprise press conference, the market was on edge for just over an hour, but I think it is progress that he chose this route as opposed to his twitter account. There was not much to come from Trump, although he did make reference again to his “phenomenal” tax cuts.

In the Zone

  • EURUSD
  • AUDUSD
  • USDCHF
  • USDZAR

Noteworthy News

  • Donald Trump mentioned last night that, “he inherited a disaster,” he also mentioned rebuilding the military which could be a cause for concern. This USD could be a yoyo for the next 4 years.

Recap

The EURUSD completed its reversal pattern, and the rally starting stalling at around 1.0680, the pair did close lower than that last night. I would expect that the EUR may launch another assault on the 1.0680 level, however with very little in the way of economic data to move this pair, it may be difficult to break.

Cable is also trading back where it started the week, the GBPUSD is in the middle of its range and so I am hesitant to trade this pair. I am also aware that any form of Brexit headline could move this pair, with PM May insistent that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March, I have made the conscious decision to sit this pair out until after the dust settles.

The USDJPY continued the fight against the USD, this was a trade that we did identify yesterday. Support down at 113.00 did hold yesterday and this was despite a poor US bond auction, early morning price action does suggest to me that we could see some dollar strength this afternoon and so I would not be surprised if this pair traded towards 114.00.

USDCAD is trading in a positive correlation with oil, which means that it continues to trade in a very tight range – in the middle of nowhere. Like the rest of the commodity pairs, we have seen 4 consecutive flat days which is proving to be frustrating. I can’t see anything drastic happening today and so we may have to be content in calling it a day in these pairs and look to trade it next week.

I traded early this morning in the Asian Session – with a US bank holiday on Monday, I can now sit back and enjoy a 3 day weekend. If you are trading today, be aware of Monday and make sure you place your stops before market close, who knows what could be released on the infamous Trump.

Daily Ranges 17/02/2017

Majors

EURUSD

Resistance                                          1.0670 – 1.0690

Support                                                1.0620 – 1.0600

GBPUSD

Resistance                                          1.2520 – 1.2550

Support                                                1.2440 – 1.2420

AUDUSD

Resistance                                          0.7710 – 0.7730

Support                                                0.7670 – 0.7650

NZDUSD

Resistance                                          0.7230 – 0.7250

Support                                                0.7180 – 0.7150

USDCAD

Resistance                                          1.3100 – 1.3115

Support                                                1.3030 – 1.3010

USDJPY

Resistance                                          114.00 – 114.20

Support                                                113.20 – 112.80

USDCHF

Resistance                                          1.0040 – 1.0060

Support                                                0.9960 – 0.9930

Rand

USDZAR

Resistance                                          13.0350 – 13.0750

Support                                                12.9050 – 12.8850           

EURZAR

Resistance                                          13.8550 – 13.9080

Support                                                13.7325 – 13.6900

GBPZAR

Resistance                                          16.3010 – 16.3460

Support                                                16.1200 – 16.1440

Minors

AUDCAD

Resistance                                          1.0060 – 1.0080

Support                                                1.0020 – 1.0000

AUDJPY

Resistance                                          87.90 – 88.40

Support                                                87.20 – 87.00

EURCHF

Resistance                                          1.0670 – 1.0690

Support                                                1.0630 – 1.0610

EURGBP

Resistance                                          0.8540 – 0.8560

Support                                                0.8490 – 0.8470

EURJPY

Resistance                                          121.20 – 121.50

Support                                                120.30 – 120.00

GBPJPY

Resistance                                          142.40 – 142.70

Support                                                141.40 – 141.20

GBPCAD

Resistance                                          1.6340 – 1.6370

Support                                                1.6250 – 1.6230

GBPCHF

Resistance                                          1.2530 – 1.2550

Support                                                1.2450 – 1.2430

Indices

DE30

Resistance                                          11800 – 11900

Support                                                11730 – 11710

UK100

Resistance                                          7280 – 7320

Support                                                7250 – 7230

US500

Resistance                                          2350 – 2390

Support                                                2310 – 2300

US30

Resistance                                          20600 – 20620

Support                                                20350 – 20300

SA40

Resistance                                          46200 – 46400

Support                                                45300 – 45000

Commodities

BRENT

Resistance                                          56.80 – 57.00

Support                                                55.50 – 55.10

XAUUSD

Resistance                                          1235.00 – 1250.00

Support                                                1215.00 – 1200.20

XAGUSD

Resistance                                          17.80 – 17.99

Support                                                17.40 – 17.20

Important Economic Data out today

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