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Dean's Daily FX Update – 16 May 2017
In the Zone
- EURUSD
- GBPUSD
- USDCAD
- USDJPY
Noteworthy News
- There is momentum building behind the news that President Trump leaked classified information to the Russians in their meeting last week. I am no expert on US politics but I always believed that the President of a country can declassify anything – perhaps more fake news?
Recap
The world is a confusing state at the moment and it seems as though the financial markets are reflecting that confusion. To me, it reminds me of a school yard tussle where kids are forced to pick sides when there is a disagreement – the dilemma at play is do you side with the bully you know, or the bully that you don’t.
The market clearly needs something to focus on, the North Korea missile ballistic testing meant that the dollar should have strengthened as traders looked to the bully they know. As the day filtered through, the debate over the firing of the FBI director led the dollar slightly weaker as it is becoming apparent that the bully we know may have too many skeletons.
The only real direction we got yesterday was around the announcements around the OPEC agreement and this was the catalyst for both a strong oil and strong USDCAD move. The CAD has had multiple attempts at 1.3600 but each time it has found some support, it is telling to me that without the aid of a strong oil price the USDCAD cannot maintain any momentum. The sellers will need to see a close below 1.3600 to see further strength, but we are starting to see divergence on the 4H chart build – and with oil losing momentum, it could be a tough task. I expect the bulls to start building bids just below 1.3600.
The EURUSD was pretty impressive yesterday and it continues to march against the USD, I have both 4H and Daily divergence forming and so it is just a matter of remaining patient. The pair was a little bit shy around 1.1000, but I do believe that last week’s high at 1.1020 will be the first wave of resistance, the buyers will need a close above that level, buyers will start building bids at 1.0900 so could be a nice range forming.
I will be keeping an eye on the commodity currencies in the New York session, it feels as though it always loses a little lustre one the US traders get to their desk. I know it is not easy to remain patient, but in my opinion it is far better to stay out of bad positions than enter 50/50 trades, and that is exactly what I will be doing.
Daily Ranges 16/05/2017
Majors
EURUSD
Resistance 1.1020 – 1.1050
Support 1.0930 – 1.0900
GBPUSD
Resistance 1.2940 – 1.2960
Support 1.2860 – 1.2840
AUDUSD
Resistance 0.7420 – 0.7450
Support 0.7370 – 0.7350
NZDUSD
Resistance 0.6900 – 0.6920
Support 0.6840 – 0.6820
USDCAD
Resistance 1.3690 – 1.3710
Support 1.3620 – 1.3600
USDJPY
Resistance 113.80 – 114.20
Support 113.20 – 113.00
USDCHF
Resistance 1.0060 – 1.0080
Support 0.9950 – 0.9930
Rand
USDZAR
Resistance 13.3180 – 13.3500
Support 13.1150 – 13.0870
EURZAR
Resistance 14.5740 – 14.6040
Support 14.4040 – 14.3500
GBPZAR
Resistance 17.1400 – 17.1900
Support 16.9450 – 16.9050
Minors
AUDCAD
Resistance 1.0137 – 1.0150
Support 1.0080 – 1.0060
AUDJPY
Resistance 84.30 – 84.60
Support 83.50 – 83.30
EURCHF
Resistance 1.0960 – 1.0980
Support 1.0930 – 1.0920
EURGBP
Resistance 0.8510 – 0.8540
Support 0.8450 – 0.8430
EURJPY
Resistance 124.80 – 125.10
Support 124.20 – 124.30
GBPJPY
Resistance 146.80 – 147.00
Support 146.00 – 145.80
GBPCAD
Resistance 1.7650 – 1.7670
Support 1.7570 – 1.7550
GBPCHF
Resistance 1.2910 – 1.2930
Support 1.2850 – 1.2830
Indices
DE30
Resistance 12830 – 12850
Support 12720 – 12700
UK100
Resistance
Support
US500
Resistance 2400 – 2420
Support 2380 – 2370
US30
Resistance 20920 – 20950
Support 20830 – 20800
SA40
Resistance 48000 – 48100
Support 47400 – 47500
Commodities
BRENT
Resistance 51.90 – 52.30
Support 50.40 – 50.20
XAUUSD
Resistance 1230.00 – 1240.00
Support 1210.00 – 1200.00
XAGUSD
Resistance 16.50 – 16.70
Support 16.20 – 16.10
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