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We have a bumper day ahead on the economic calendar, on a normal trading day both the US CPI and Retail Sales release would be huge, but the FOMC interest rate decision this evening will take centre stage. For the most part we should expect an interest rate hike tonight, we have a 94% probability priced in and 80 of 83 economists are calling for a hike. The market will be listening for any clues as to when the next hike will be, my gut says that this evening could be a disappointing day for the dollar bulls, Fed Chair Yellen tries to keep everything flexible and so while she will leave future hikes on the table she will also signal caution.
Dean's Daily FX Update – 15 March 2017
In the Zone
- GBPUSD
- NZDUSD
- USDCAD
Noteworthy News
- The French elections are starting to turn ugly again, with Fillon now under investigation for diversion of public funds. This election continues to get tainted with scandal, the EU really needed a clean election in France this year and this type of election could put the EUR under pressure.
Recap
The dollar was largely stronger against the major pairs last night, albeit in very tight ranges. The EUR and GBP are at most risk of volatility this week, we have the impending Brexit finalization and triggering of Article 50 in cable. In the EUR we will have the impending Brexit, but also we have elections in the Netherlands and French elections on the horizon to factor in.
The EURUSD did find resistance yesterday evening and closed around the big figure of 1.0600, we were looking for price to launch an attack on the 100 bar MA at 1.0580 and I suspect the bears may give it another bash this morning. Leading into the FOMC this evening the buyers will be desperate to see price move above 1.0650, if it fails however, the sellers will quickly target 1.0500.
The USDJPY is trading at 115.10, which is precisely the middle of the 2017 range. The buyers have been trying to break above this level but have thus far failed. The nearest support comes in at 114.40 and this has confluence with the 200 hour MA, the sellers will need to have a close below that level if it wants to have another attempt at the lower levels at 112.00.
The AUDUSD found support at 0.7540 yesterday which was the 100 hour MA, there are plenty of levels for the buyers to lean against with both 0.7535 and 0.7515 providing significant support levels. The buyers will not be comfortable until price closes above 0.7585 though and I so I will be monitoring that levels closely.
We cover the rest of the pairs in the morning video, for me it seems as though the pairs are bracing themselves to be disappointed and possibly to strengthen against the dollar this evening.
Daily Ranges 15/03/2017
Majors
EURUSD
Resistance 1.0660 – 1.0700
Support 1.0610 – 1.0590
GBPUSD
Resistance 1.2180 – 1.2200
Support 1.2120 – 1.2100
AUDUSD
Resistance 0.7580 – 0.7600
Support 0.7530 – 0.7510
NZDUSD
Resistance 0.6930 – 0.6950
Support 0.6880 – 0.6860
USDCAD
Resistance 1.3480 – 1.3500
Support 1.3420 – 1.3400
USDJPY
Resistance 115.10 – 115.20
Support 114.50 – 114.30
USDCHF
Resistance 1.0110 – 1.0120
Support 1.0070 – 1.0050
Rand
USDZAR
Resistance 13.2080 – 13.2300
Support 13.0940 – 13.0690
EURZAR
Resistance 14.0460 – 14.0830
Support 13.9220 – 13.9030
GBPZAR
Resistance 16.0670 – 16.1070
Support 15.9300 – 15.9020
Minors
AUDCAD
Resistance 1.0196 – 1.0200
Support 1.0140 – 1.0130
AUDJPY
Resistance 87.00 – 87.30
Support 86.60 – 86.40
EURCHF
Resistance 1.0780 – 1.0800
Support 1.0690 – 1.0670
EURGBP
Resistance 0.8760 – 0.8780
Support 0.8720 – 0.8700
EURJPY
Resistance 122.70 – 122.90
Support 121.70 – 121.50
GBPJPY
Resistance 140.00 – 140.20
Support 139.20 – 139.00
GBPCAD
Resistance 1.6440 – 1.6460
Support 1.6340 – 1.6320
GBPCHF
Resistance 1.2290 – 1.2310
Support 1.2250 – 1.2230
Indices
DE30
Resistance 12030 – 12050
Support 11930 – 11900
UK100
Resistance 7370 – 7390
Support 7320 – 7310
US500
Resistance 2380 – 2400
Support 2360 – 2340
US30
Resistance 21000 – 21070
Support 20880 – 20850
SA40
Resistance 44700 – 44800
Support 44000 – 43800
Commodities
BRENT
Resistance 52.00 – 52.30
Support 50.80 – 50.60
XAUUSD
Resistance 1210.00 – 1230.00
Support 1190.00 – 1180.00
XAGUSD
Resistance 17.00 – 17.20
Support 16.80 – 16.70
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