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It is not often that I pay Fed Chair Yellen a compliment – the reason being is that in my opinion she comes across as being very indecisive and for most of her term has actually confused the markets. I thought she was excellent yesterday though, she let the market know that we should be expecting rate hikes this year without giving away the timing. It was probably what the market was hoping for and the USD rallied by about 100 pips on most the major pairs, it was interesting to note that on some pairs the dollar gave those pips back before the close.
Dean's Daily FX Update – 15 February 2017
In the Zone
- EURUSD
- GBPUSD
- NZDCAD
- USDJPY
- USDCHF
- USDZAR
Noteworthy News
- Fed Chair Yellen comments that “a rate hike will be appropriate at one of the upcoming meetings,” has put the market on alert. The consensus is for a hike in the Northern Hemisphere summer, but those comments will fuel the hope for a March hike.
Recap
It is not often that I pay Fed Chair Yellen a compliment – the reason being is that in my opinion she comes across as being very indecisive and for most of her term has actually confused the markets. I thought she was excellent yesterday though, she let the market know that we should be expecting rate hikes this year without giving away the timing. It was probably what the market was hoping for and the USD rallied by about 100 pips on most the major pairs, it was interesting to note that on some pairs the dollar gave those pips back before the close.
Like yesterday, the dollar move has presented itself a lot of potential technical trading set ups and so the morning video may seem a little longer this morning. There is a lot of event risk to move the market today in the form of US CPI, US Retail Sales as well as yet another Yellen speech – so be on your toes this afternoon.
The January low in the EURUSD was 1.0580 and this is where price is treading water this morning, the market sees this as a negative pair to trade as we have seen 6 negative closes out of the last 7. In the last 7 days, we have seen 3 ECB speeches and 1 Fed speech, which are all fundamental. The market has a knack of swallowing those pretty quickly and so I will be looking for price to attempt another look at 1.0620.
The USDJPY will be an interesting pair to watch the morning, developments over the weekend and divergence on monetary policies means that this pair has moved from 111.60 to 114.50 in a little over a week. We are currently trading around the 200 hour MA and this level will be key for both buyers and sellers, a break lower targets 112.50 and a break higher targets 116.00.
The commodity currencies were impressive performers yesterday, despite the dollar rally the USDCAD and NZDUSD finished flat on the day with the AUDUSD actually finishing higher on the day.
Daily Ranges 15/02/2017
Majors
EURUSD
Resistance 1.0630 – 1.0650
Support 1.0570 – 1.0550
GBPUSD
Resistance 1.2540 – 1.2560
Support 1.2450 – 1.2440
AUDUSD
Resistance 0.7680 – 0.7710
Support 0.7625 – 0.7610
NZDUSD
Resistance 0.7210 – 0.7230
Support 0.7140 – 0.7120
USDCAD
Resistance 1.3110 – 1.3130
Support 1.3020 – 1.3000
USDJPY
Resistance 114.30 – 114.50
Support 113.30 – 113.00
USDCHF
Resistance 1.0070 – 1.0090
Support 1.0010 – 0.9990
Rand
USDZAR
Resistance 13.2550 – 13.2850
Support 13.0850 – 13.0550
EURZAR
Resistance 13.9950 – 14.0380
Support 13.8495 – 13.8000
GBPZAR
Resistance 16.5310 – 16.5660
Support 16.3100 – 16.2840
Minors
AUDCAD
Resistance 1.0060 – 1.0080
Support 0.9980 – 0.9950
AUDJPY
Resistance 87.90 – 88.40
Support 86.90 – 86.70
EURCHF
Resistance 1.0670 – 1.0690
Support 1.0630 – 1.0610
EURGBP
Resistance 0.8510 – 0.8530
Support 0.8460 – 0.8430
EURJPY
Resistance 121.00 – 121.20
Support 120.30 – 120.00
GBPJPY
Resistance 142.77 – 142.90
Support 141.40 – 141.20
GBPCAD
Resistance 1.6378 – 1.6400
Support 1.6270 – 1.6250
GBPCHF
Resistance 1.2590 – 1.2610
Support 1.2500 – 1.2480
Indices
DE30
Resistance 11900 – 11950
Support 11730 – 11710
UK100
Resistance 7280 – 7320
Support 7250 – 7230
US500
Resistance 2350 – 2390
Support 2310 – 2300
US30
Resistance 20550 – 20600
Support 20350 – 20300
SA40
Resistance 46200 – 46400
Support 45300 – 45000
Commodities
BRENT
Resistance 56.80 – 57.00
Support 55.50 – 55.10
XAUUSD
Resistance 1235.00 – 1250.00
Support 1215.00 – 1200.20
XAGUSD
Resistance 17.80 – 17.99
Support 17.40 – 17.20
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