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15 February 2017 – Dean Forex Market Commentary

15 Feb
Forex Market Preview

15 February 2017 – Dean Forex Market Commentary

Did you know: The Forex or FX Market derives its name from Foreign Exchange. It is essentially the exchange of currency (money) between two different countries. The FX market is the largest financial market in the world, and is open 24 hours per day, 5 days per week. Read More – Introduction To The Forex Market

It is not often that I pay Fed Chair Yellen a compliment – the reason being is that in my opinion she comes across as being very indecisive and for most of her term has actually confused the markets. I thought she was excellent yesterday though, she let the market know that we should be expecting rate hikes this year without giving away the timing. It was probably what the market was hoping for and the USD rallied by about 100 pips on most the major pairs, it was interesting to note that on some pairs the dollar gave those pips back before the close.

Dean’s Daily FX Update – 15 February 2017

In the Zone

  • EURUSD
  • GBPUSD
  • NZDCAD
  • USDJPY
  • USDCHF
  • USDZAR

Noteworthy News

  • Fed Chair Yellen comments that “a rate hike will be appropriate at one of the upcoming meetings,” has put the market on alert. The consensus is for a hike in the Northern Hemisphere summer, but those comments will fuel the hope for a March hike.

Recap

It is not often that I pay Fed Chair Yellen a compliment – the reason being is that in my opinion she comes across as being very indecisive and for most of her term has actually confused the markets. I thought she was excellent yesterday though, she let the market know that we should be expecting rate hikes this year without giving away the timing. It was probably what the market was hoping for and the USD rallied by about 100 pips on most the major pairs, it was interesting to note that on some pairs the dollar gave those pips back before the close.

Like yesterday, the dollar move has presented itself a lot of potential technical trading set ups and so the morning video may seem a little longer this morning. There is a lot of event risk to move the market today in the form of US CPI, US Retail Sales as well as yet another Yellen speech – so be on your toes this afternoon.

The January low in the EURUSD was 1.0580 and this is where price is treading water this morning, the market sees this as a negative pair to trade as we have seen 6 negative closes out of the last 7. In the last 7 days, we have seen 3 ECB speeches and 1 Fed speech, which are all fundamental. The market has a knack of swallowing those pretty quickly and so I will be looking for price to attempt another look at 1.0620.

The USDJPY will be an interesting pair to watch the morning, developments over the weekend and divergence on monetary policies means that this pair has moved from 111.60 to 114.50 in a little over a week. We are currently trading around the 200 hour MA and this level will be key for both buyers and sellers, a break lower targets 112.50 and a break higher targets 116.00.

The commodity currencies were impressive performers yesterday, despite the dollar rally the USDCAD and NZDUSD finished flat on the day with the AUDUSD actually finishing higher on the day.

Daily Ranges 15/02/2017

Majors

EURUSD

Resistance                                          1.0630 – 1.0650

Support                                                1.0570 – 1.0550

GBPUSD

Resistance                                          1.2540 – 1.2560

Support                                                1.2450 – 1.2440

AUDUSD

Resistance                                          0.7680 – 0.7710

Support                                                0.7625 – 0.7610

NZDUSD

Resistance                                          0.7210 – 0.7230

Support                                                0.7140 – 0.7120

USDCAD

Resistance                                          1.3110 – 1.3130

Support                                                1.3020 – 1.3000

USDJPY

Resistance                                          114.30 – 114.50

Support                                                113.30 – 113.00

USDCHF

Resistance                                          1.0070 – 1.0090

Support                                                1.0010 – 0.9990

Rand

USDZAR

Resistance                                          13.2550 – 13.2850

Support                                                13.0850 – 13.0550           

EURZAR

Resistance                                          13.9950 – 14.0380

Support                                                13.8495 – 13.8000

GBPZAR

Resistance                                          16.5310 – 16.5660

Support                                                16.3100 – 16.2840

Minors

AUDCAD

Resistance                                          1.0060 – 1.0080

Support                                                0.9980 – 0.9950

AUDJPY

Resistance                                          87.90 – 88.40

Support                                                86.90 – 86.70

EURCHF

Resistance                                          1.0670 – 1.0690

Support                                                1.0630 – 1.0610

EURGBP

Resistance                                          0.8510 – 0.8530

Support                                                0.8460 – 0.8430

EURJPY

Resistance                                          121.00 – 121.20

Support                                                120.30 – 120.00

GBPJPY

Resistance                                          142.77 – 142.90

Support                                                141.40 – 141.20

GBPCAD

Resistance                                          1.6378 – 1.6400

Support                                                1.6270 – 1.6250

GBPCHF

Resistance                                          1.2590 – 1.2610

Support                                                1.2500 – 1.2480

Indices

DE30

Resistance                                          11900 – 11950

Support                                                11730 – 11710

UK100

Resistance                                          7280 – 7320

Support                                                7250 – 7230

US500

Resistance                                          2350 – 2390

Support                                                2310 – 2300

US30

Resistance                                          20550 – 20600

Support                                                20350 – 20300

SA40

Resistance                                          46200 – 46400

Support                                                45300 – 45000

Commodities

BRENT

Resistance                                          56.80 – 57.00

Support                                                55.50 – 55.10

XAUUSD

Resistance                                          1235.00 – 1250.00

Support                                                1215.00 – 1200.20

XAGUSD

Resistance                                          17.80 – 17.99

Support                                                17.40 – 17.20

Important Economic Data out today

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