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Dean's Daily FX Update – 15 August 2017
In the Zone
- USDCAD
- USDJPY
- GOLD
- SILVER
- ALSI
Noteworthy News
- With all the political drama unfolding everywhere, we are starting to see a lot of flow into bitcoin of late. It is something to keep an eye on as it could become a more reliable safe haven to gold.
Recap
Despite the summer month trading conditions, the market continues to be dominated by geopolitical factors which has the potential to move the market even more because of reduced liquidity. There was less concern about potential conflict between the US and North Korea and so the safe haven like Gold, JPY and CHF started reversing a lot of the gains it had built up last week.
The circus in the White House administration continues to roll on, the interesting aspect that I noticed yesterday is that the market is starting to ignore anything that comes from Trump – and that is not a good thing. The racist scenes we saw over the weekend did not really draw a strong reaction from Trump over the weekend, and although he tried to denounce it yesterday, it was a case of too little too late. We have seen a few CEO figures on Trumps Manufacturing Council resign over this and instead of sympathising over this racism he chose to “abuse” these figures on twitter. The market did not even budge on these tweets which means that the market are quickly starting to treat as a joke, and if you want to know what happens to a President that loses the confidence of the financial markets – ask Obama.
There were hints out of the FED yesterday that it we could start to see the tapering of the balance sheet begin in September, there was a brief rally in the dollar but I think most places are scared to trade off a long USD base at the moment. The report today is as brief as the video this morning as I am not seeing a lot of opportunity out there and instead look for short term trading opportunities, I will be looking for the retails sales data to provide a little volatility later.
Keep an eye out for the afternoon video that tries to tie everything together.
Important Economic Data out today
10:30 GBP CPI
Consensus: 2.7%
Effect: Actual higher than expected is good for the GBP
14:30 USD Retail Sales
Consensus: 0.3%
Effect: Actual higher than expected is good for the USD
14:30 USD Empire State Manufacturing Index
Consensus: 10.1
Effect: Actual higher than expected is good for the USD
14:30 USD Import Prices
Consensus: 0.1%
Effect: Actual higher than expected is good for the USD
Tentative NZD GDT Price Index
Consensus: -1.6%
Effect: Actual higher than expected is good for the NZD
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