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14 September 2017- Dean Forex Market Commentary

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Dean's Daily FX Update – 14 September 2017

In the Zone

  • EURUSD
  • AUDUSD
  • NZDUSD
  • USDCAD
  • Oil

Noteworthy News

  • Keep an eye on the bipartisan talks Trump is having with the Democrats, it all seems great now but we have seen Trump react like a spoilt brat when he doesn’t get his way. If no deals get passed, the dollar move could unwind quickly.

Recap

Donald Trump has been engaging a little bit more with the opposition of late, last week he accepted a Democrat plan to extend the debt ceiling, it was against the view of the Republican House speaker but it in the wake of Hurricane season it was a low risk move. He is also being a little bit more proactive in looking for bipartisan support for his big policies like tax and healthcare, he is starting to meet with more Democrat Senators than Republican, even choosing to have dinner with Democrat leaders such as Nancy Pelosi.

In the wake of some of the Republican Party not completely supporting him during his office up to now, this is an interesting route to take. If Trump can get some of the more conservative Democrats to meet him half way he will definitely have more chance of getting more of his policies through Congress. Whether by design or coincidence, the dollar is loving the fact that he is willing to work with the opposition and get bipartisan agreements in place.

The EURUSD may have stalled in London yesterday on the 100 hour MA but it wasn’t long before the pair broke through the 200 hour MA at 1.1950. The sellers pushed the pair all the way down to 1.1875 before we saw a little respite, this morning will be an interesting one as I am sure we will see some bids building at these levels. I think that we could be waiting to see a breakout today, the buyers will want to see the pair trade higher than 1.1915 before we get momentum while a sustained push below 1.1865 will see the sellers get excited.

Cable was the other big mover yesterday as it traded as low as 1.3180 before settling at the 100 hour MA at 1.3200. There was risk today in the form of the BOE meeting which should limit the early morning move, but I am sure the statement may result in a momentum move today, I would like to see which direction from 1.3200 this pair trades in the wake of that statement before deciding which way momentum will trade.

Keep an eye out for the afternoon video that tries to tie everything together.

Important Economic Data out today

09:30                                     CHF                                        Libor Rate

Consensus:                         -0.75%

Effect:                                   Actual higher than expected is good for the CHF

 

09:30                                     CHF                                        SNB Monetary Policy Assessment

Consensus:                         None

Effect:                                   More hawkish than expected is good for the CHF

 

13:00                                     GBP                                       Official Bank Rate

Consensus:                         0.25%

Effect:                                   Actual higher than expected is good for the GBP

 

13:00                                     GBP                                       Monetary Policy Statement

Consensus:                         None

Effect:                                   More hawkish than expected is good for the GBP

 

14:30                                     USD                                       CPI

Consensus:                         0.3%

Effect:                                   Actual higher than expected is good for the USD

 

14:30                                     USD                                       Unemployment Claims

Consensus:                         303K

Effect:                                   Actual lower than expected is good for the USD

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