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13 March 2017 – Dean Forex Market Commentary

13 Mar
Forex Market Preview

13 March 2017 – Dean Forex Market Commentary

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All the pairs have been covered in the morning video, it is important to note that although there are some technical levels in play, we are very much in a fundamental environment and that is what may drive these pairs today. I sit with a dilemma in that the intraday charts and the daily charts are painting slightly different pictures and I am undecided as to which chart to trade off. I have decided to allow for the London and New York session to guide me as it would be easy let “my view” dictate which chart I trade off today.

Dean’s Daily FX Update – 13 March 2017

In the Zone

  • GBPUSD
  • AUDUSD
  • NZDUSD
  • USDCAD
  • USDJPY
  • USDZAR

Noteworthy News

  • Reports over the weekend is that the UK could trigger article as early as Tuesday, considering all the event risk we have this week, it may take the gloss off the FOMC and will ultimately affect the GBP for the next couple of weeks.

Recap

All the pairs have been covered in the morning video, it is important to note that although there are some technical levels in play, we are very much in a fundamental environment and that is what may drive these pairs today. I sit with a dilemma in that the intraday charts and the daily charts are painting slightly different pictures and I am undecided as to which chart to trade off. I have decided to allow for the London and New York session to guide me as it would be easy let “my view” dictate which chart I trade off today.

We have a lot of event risk this week in the form of various central bank meeting this week, none more important than the Fed. It would be an absolute shock to the market if there was no hike this week, I think we are certain to see it – the market will instead be waiting to hear from the market if we are going to get 3 or 4 hikes this year. Liquidity may start to dry up tomorrow ahead of this meeting.

The session this morning has continued the dollar weakness that we saw on Friday after the NFP with oil still being the most under pressure. We have broken key support levels in oil and it is trading near the 200 day MA, this will be a pivotal level to watch this morning, keeping in mind that this is what will drive the USDCAD this morning.

The EURUSD was the star last week, and it continued its march against the greenback this morning. Keep in mind that we have a speech by ECB President Draghi this afternoon and this is potentially a huge market mover today. He was upbeat last week, but he does have a knack of being inconsistent. Keep an eye on the EURCHF, there has been a little bit of unbalancing last week and this could be the trade of the week.

Daily Ranges 13/03/2017

Majors

EURUSD

Resistance                                          1.0685 – 1.0700

Support                                                1.0590 – 1.0575

GBPUSD

Resistance                                          1.2180 – 1.2200

Support                                                1.2140 – 1.2120

AUDUSD

Resistance                                          0.7570 – 0.7590

Support                                                0.7510 – 0.7490

NZDUSD

Resistance                                          0.6930 – 0.6950

Support                                                0.6880 – 0.6860

USDCAD

Resistance                                          1.3500 – 1.3515

Support                                                1.3420 – 1.3400

USDJPY

Resistance                                          115.10 – 115.20

Support                                                114.50 – 114.30

USDCHF

Resistance                                          1.0115 – 1.0130

Support                                                1.0050 – 1.0030

Rand

USDZAR

Resistance                                          13.2950 – 13.3250

Support                                                13.1300 – 13.1000           

EURZAR

Resistance                                          14.1160 – 14.1520

Support                                                13.9980 – 13.9540

GBPZAR

Resistance                                          16.1640 – 16.1970

Support                                                15.9940 – 15.9610

Minors

AUDCAD

Resistance                                          1.0170 – 1.0200

Support                                                1.0120 – 1.0100

AUDJPY

Resistance                                          86.80 – 87.00

Support                                                86.00 – 85.80

EURCHF

Resistance                                          1.0790 – 1.0800

Support                                                1.0690 – 1.0670

EURGBP

Resistance                                          0.8780 – 0.8810

Support                                                0.8630 – 0.8610

EURJPY

Resistance                                          122.00 – 123.10

Support                                                121.70 – 121.50

GBPJPY

Resistance                                          140.20 – 140.40

Support                                                139.30 – 139.00

GBPCAD

Resistance                                          1.6440 – 1.6460

Support                                                1.6370 – 1.6350

GBPCHF

Resistance                                          1.2325 – 1.2345

Support                                                1.2270 – 1.2250

Indices

DE30

Resistance                                          12000 – 12030

Support                                                11930 – 11900

UK100

Resistance                                          7340 – 7400

Support                                                7290 – 7270

US500

Resistance                                          2380 – 2400

Support                                                2360 – 2340

US30

Resistance                                          21000 – 21070

Support                                                20880 – 20850

SA40

Resistance                                          44700 – 44800

Support                                                44000 – 43800

Commodities

BRENT

Resistance                                          52.30 – 52.60

Support                                                50.70 – 50.50

XAUUSD

Resistance                                          1210.00 – 1230.00

Support                                                1190.00 – 1180.00

XAGUSD

Resistance                                          17.10 – 17.20

Support                                                16.90 – 16.70

Important Economic Data out today

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