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12 June 2017 – Dean Forex Market Commentary

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Dean's Daily FX Update – 12 June 2017

In the Zone

  • AUDUSD
  • NZDUSD
  • USDCAD
  • USDJPY

Noteworthy News

  • The UK have resisted the urge to make sweeping changes to their cabinet which is a relief considering that Brexit is still around the corner. I will be watching rumours closely as the UK are not in a strong position to negotiate at present.

Recap

With Australia enjoying a bank holiday today, the Asian Pacific session was always going to be subdued. Last week we had to endure a big week and this week does not get easier with 3 major central bank meetings – including the FOMC. There is more and more reason to suspect that the Fed are going to raise interest rates this week and we may see the market start to position itself for that scenario, the market will start to shift towards any clues as to any other possible hikes this year, or even reducing of the balance sheet.

After the surprising election result in the UK last week the GBPUSD was the mover early this morning, although the magnitude was nowhere near what we saw on Friday. Cable continued the bounce we saw late on Friday and in Tokyo it was trading around 1.2770, price seems to have stalled at these levels for now. This will be a huge level for the buyers as we can already see sellers placing offers here. There are rumours circulating around the UK that government in the current form will see a softer Brexit, whilst some are doubting if we will even see a Brexit. I continue to sit this pair out and will wait for the dust to settle.

The French had yet another election last night, this time to vote on the number of seats each party is to receive. President Macron in the first round has won about 80% of the seats, although he only won 32% of the vote – it really looks a flawed political system to me and hardly resembles a functioning democracy. Macron is fast becoming the “cheeky schoolboy,” that everyone dislikes as he was on twitter gloating over the results, for someone who only won 32% of the parliament vote and 23% of the Presidential vote – I am surprised by his arrogance as he is hardly a popular candidate. Either way, the EURUSD has traded somewhat flat this morning, I am waiting for either 1.1160 or 1.1250 to break this week.

The commodity currencies have started the week in rather tight ranges, no doubt waiting for the Fed later in the week, I do believe that these currencies are overdone after last week and is it here where I find myself looking for opportunity this week.

Daily Ranges 12/06/2017

Majors

EURUSD

Resistance                                          1.1220 – 1.1240

Support                                                1.1180 – 1.1160

GBPUSD

Resistance                                          1.2820 – 1.2840

Support                                                1.2720 – 1.2700

AUDUSD

Resistance                                          0.7550 – 0.7570

Support                                                0.7470 – 0.7460

NZDUSD

Resistance                                          0.7190 – 0.7210

Support                                                0.7150 – 0.7130

USDCAD

Resistance                                          1.3500 – 1.3520

Support                                                1.3430 – 1.3410

USDJPY

Resistance                                          110.50 – 110.70

Support                                                109.90 – 109.70

USDCHF

Resistance                                          0.9700 – 0.9720

Support                                                0.9640 – 0.9620

Rand

USDZAR

Resistance                                          12.9400 – 12.9750

Support                                                12.8370 – 12.8050           

EURZAR

Resistance                                          14.4870 – 14.5200

Support                                                14.3740 – 14.3300

GBPZAR

Resistance                                          16.5480 – 16.5960

Support                                                16.3760 – 16.3260

Minors

AUDCAD

Resistance                                          1.0180 – 1.0200

Support                                                1.0120 – 1.0100

AUDJPY

Resistance                                          83.20 – 83.50

Support                                                82.50 – 82.20

EURCHF

Resistance                                          1.0860 – 1.0880

Support                                                1.0840 – 1.0820

EURGBP

Resistance                                          0.8790 – 0.8820

Support                                                0.8720 – 0.8700

EURJPY

Resistance                                          123.80 – 124.00

Support                                                123.20 – 123.00

GBPJPY

Resistance                                          141.40 – 141.80

Support                                                139.70 – 139.50

GBPCAD

Resistance                                          1.7310 – 1.7350

Support                                                1.7130 – 1.7100

GBPCHF

Resistance                                          1.2420 – 1.2450

Support                                                1.2330 – 1.2300

Indices

DE30

Resistance                                          12800 – 12820

Support                                                12700 – 12680

UK100

Resistance                                         

Support                                               

US500

Resistance                                          2440 – 2460

Support                                                2420 – 2400

US30

Resistance                                          21200 – 21400

Support                                                21100 – 20900

SA40

Resistance                                          46200 – 46500

Support                                                45500 – 45300

Commodities

BRENT

Resistance                                          50.20 – 50.40

Support                                                49.20 – 49.00

XAUUSD

Resistance                                          1290 – 1300

Support                                                1250 – 1230

XAGUSD

Resistance                                          17.30 – 17.40

Support                                                17.00 – 16.80

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