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Dean's Daily FX Update – 12 June 2017
In the Zone
- AUDUSD
- NZDUSD
- USDCAD
- USDJPY
Noteworthy News
- The UK have resisted the urge to make sweeping changes to their cabinet which is a relief considering that Brexit is still around the corner. I will be watching rumours closely as the UK are not in a strong position to negotiate at present.
Recap
With Australia enjoying a bank holiday today, the Asian Pacific session was always going to be subdued. Last week we had to endure a big week and this week does not get easier with 3 major central bank meetings – including the FOMC. There is more and more reason to suspect that the Fed are going to raise interest rates this week and we may see the market start to position itself for that scenario, the market will start to shift towards any clues as to any other possible hikes this year, or even reducing of the balance sheet.
After the surprising election result in the UK last week the GBPUSD was the mover early this morning, although the magnitude was nowhere near what we saw on Friday. Cable continued the bounce we saw late on Friday and in Tokyo it was trading around 1.2770, price seems to have stalled at these levels for now. This will be a huge level for the buyers as we can already see sellers placing offers here. There are rumours circulating around the UK that government in the current form will see a softer Brexit, whilst some are doubting if we will even see a Brexit. I continue to sit this pair out and will wait for the dust to settle.
The French had yet another election last night, this time to vote on the number of seats each party is to receive. President Macron in the first round has won about 80% of the seats, although he only won 32% of the vote – it really looks a flawed political system to me and hardly resembles a functioning democracy. Macron is fast becoming the “cheeky schoolboy,” that everyone dislikes as he was on twitter gloating over the results, for someone who only won 32% of the parliament vote and 23% of the Presidential vote – I am surprised by his arrogance as he is hardly a popular candidate. Either way, the EURUSD has traded somewhat flat this morning, I am waiting for either 1.1160 or 1.1250 to break this week.
The commodity currencies have started the week in rather tight ranges, no doubt waiting for the Fed later in the week, I do believe that these currencies are overdone after last week and is it here where I find myself looking for opportunity this week.
Daily Ranges 12/06/2017
Majors
EURUSD
Resistance 1.1220 – 1.1240
Support 1.1180 – 1.1160
GBPUSD
Resistance 1.2820 – 1.2840
Support 1.2720 – 1.2700
AUDUSD
Resistance 0.7550 – 0.7570
Support 0.7470 – 0.7460
NZDUSD
Resistance 0.7190 – 0.7210
Support 0.7150 – 0.7130
USDCAD
Resistance 1.3500 – 1.3520
Support 1.3430 – 1.3410
USDJPY
Resistance 110.50 – 110.70
Support 109.90 – 109.70
USDCHF
Resistance 0.9700 – 0.9720
Support 0.9640 – 0.9620
Rand
USDZAR
Resistance 12.9400 – 12.9750
Support 12.8370 – 12.8050
EURZAR
Resistance 14.4870 – 14.5200
Support 14.3740 – 14.3300
GBPZAR
Resistance 16.5480 – 16.5960
Support 16.3760 – 16.3260
Minors
AUDCAD
Resistance 1.0180 – 1.0200
Support 1.0120 – 1.0100
AUDJPY
Resistance 83.20 – 83.50
Support 82.50 – 82.20
EURCHF
Resistance 1.0860 – 1.0880
Support 1.0840 – 1.0820
EURGBP
Resistance 0.8790 – 0.8820
Support 0.8720 – 0.8700
EURJPY
Resistance 123.80 – 124.00
Support 123.20 – 123.00
GBPJPY
Resistance 141.40 – 141.80
Support 139.70 – 139.50
GBPCAD
Resistance 1.7310 – 1.7350
Support 1.7130 – 1.7100
GBPCHF
Resistance 1.2420 – 1.2450
Support 1.2330 – 1.2300
Indices
DE30
Resistance 12800 – 12820
Support 12700 – 12680
UK100
Resistance
Support
US500
Resistance 2440 – 2460
Support 2420 – 2400
US30
Resistance 21200 – 21400
Support 21100 – 20900
SA40
Resistance 46200 – 46500
Support 45500 – 45300
Commodities
BRENT
Resistance 50.20 – 50.40
Support 49.20 – 49.00
XAUUSD
Resistance 1290 – 1300
Support 1250 – 1230
XAGUSD
Resistance 17.30 – 17.40
Support 17.00 – 16.80
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