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With the exception of the EUR, the other major currencies became a little bit subdued yesterday as we head into the NFP release today. The NFP started the week as a make or break number, but after the ADP Employment report on Wednesday, it has become almost irrelevant as an interest rate hike is for the most part nailed on.
Dean's Daily FX Update – 10 March 2017
In the Zone
- GBPUSD
- AUDUSD
- NZDUSD
- USDCAD
- USDJPY
- USDZAR
Noteworthy News
- We are starting to get to crunch time in the Brexit negotiations as both sides prepare for tough negotiations. Ultimately, I don’t believe that there will be much change in trade deals. The EU will have to try and stave off future exits though.
Recap
It is difficult to know how much of that hike is priced in, judging by the dollar run we have had in the last 2 weeks I would suspect that almost all of it. Saying that, there is more risk today that the dollar gets disappointed and we see a sell off this afternoon before the FOMC next week – there could be a “buy the rumour, sell the fact,” opportunity such as last week. In conjunction with that, the market is expecting a really strong jobs report this afternoon and a weak report will not be well received, anything less than a 100K jobs created will cause some jitters which will see a massive dollar sell off.
ECB president Draghi was surprisingly upbeat yesterday, the ECB did not change stimulus but he did note that he was seeing steady growth and employment and this was the catalyst for the EUR pairs to trade higher. The 100 hour MA level at 1.0575 will be the pivotal level this morning and will probably define bullish and bearish. The pair will trade within a tight range leading into the jobs report this afternoon and it will be interesting to note which level will break, on the bottom side we have 1.0500 and the top side resistance at 1.0650.
All the pairs seem to be poised to retrace against the dollar this afternoon, I suspect that the morning may be subdued before we spring into action this afternoon. I cover the rest of the pairs in the morning video.
Daily Ranges 10/03/2017
Majors
EURUSD
Resistance 1.0600 – 1.0620
Support 1.0540 – 1.0520
GBPUSD
Resistance 1.2190 – 1.2220
Support 1.2130 – 1.2100
AUDUSD
Resistance 0.7540 – 0.7570
Support 0.7500 – 0.7480
NZDUSD
Resistance 0.6920 – 0.6940
Support 0.6880 – 0.6876
USDCAD
Resistance 1.3510 – 1.3540
Support 1.3470 – 1.3420
USDJPY
Resistance 115.30 – 115.50
Support 114.50 – 114.30
USDCHF
Resistance 1.0160 – 1.0180
Support 1.0100 – 1.0080
Rand
USDZAR
Resistance 13.3000 – 13.3350
Support 13.1600 – 13.12500
EURZAR
Resistance 14.0880 – 14.1290
Support 13.9180 – 13.8740
GBPZAR
Resistance 16.1640 – 16.1970
Support 16.0260 – 15.8990
Minors
AUDCAD
Resistance 1.0170 – 1.0200
Support 1.0120 – 1.0100
AUDJPY
Resistance 86.80 – 87.00
Support 85.80 – 85.50
EURCHF
Resistance 1.0719 – 1.0730
Support 1.0690 – 1.0670
EURGBP
Resistance 0.8700 – 0.8720
Support 0.8650 – 0.8630
EURJPY
Resistance 122.20 – 122.40
Support 120.90 – 120.70
GBPJPY
Resistance 140.40 – 140.70
Support 139.10 – 138.80
GBPCAD
Resistance 1.6440 – 1.6460
Support 1.6370 – 1.6350
GBPCHF
Resistance 1.2355 – 1.2375
Support 1.2310 – 1.2300
Indices
DE30
Resistance 12000 – 12030
Support 11930 – 11900
UK100
Resistance 7340 – 7400
Support 7290 – 7270
US500
Resistance 2380 – 2400
Support 2360 – 2340
US30
Resistance 21000 – 21070
Support 20880 – 20850
SA40
Resistance 44700 – 44800
Support 44000 – 43800
Commodities
BRENT
Resistance 53.80 – 54.00
Support 52.00 – 51.60
XAUUSD
Resistance 1234.00 – 1245.00
Support 1200.00 – 1180.00
XAGUSD
Resistance 17.20 – 17.40
Support 16.90 – 16.70
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