Dean's Daily FX Update – 08 December 2016
In the Zone
- EURUSD
- GBPUSD
- AUDUSD
- NZDUSD
- USDCAD
Recap
Just when you thought the “Trump Rally” could not continue, the equity markets rose another 1.5% and it seems as though Trump really does have that magic touch – yesterday he was even named as the Person of the Year by TIME Magazine. The difference between the rally now and the initial move after the Election is that whilst the equity market is moving upwards, the USD and the bond yields are going the other way.
The EURUSD is clearly on tenterhooks ahead of the ECB speech today as the market is waiting on news of a potential increase of QE. It is tricky to trade on Draghi comments but I expect that the EURUSD will be waiting to see which side of the range this pair breaks, a break above 1.0820 will be a bullish sign whilst a close below 1.0700 will bring more downside momentum.
Brexit concerns continue to dog the cable, although to be honest we were expecting some sort of resistance at 1.2735. We had a bit of a run lower yesterday on poor economic data but the sterling did find some strong support at 1.2570 which was the 200 Hour MA, I find it encouraging that the pair closed above 1.2620 – this is the price that started the flash crash. I am looking at the same range for now, I expect there to be some strong resistance at 1.2750 and some strong support at 1.2575. Much like the EUR, we will need to break that range to see the next move.
The USDJPY continues to trade between the ranges we defined on Monday and I am employing the same strategy. The 200 Hour MA is trading at 113.45 and we have not managed to close below this level since the US Election, I am looking for price to test these levels again today. I will be cautious against just going bid there, I feel that at some point this level has to break and we could finally get that look lower today.
The AUDUSD and the NZDUSD were both in a bullish mood yesterday, we cover both pairs in more detail in this morning’s video but I would definitely be monitoring the Fib levels drawn from the daily charts. Both are at key levels and I am hesitant to look for any larger exaggerated moves. The ZAR continues to trade like a “gem” and whilst many are looking for the pair to test the year lows at 13.19, I still think that there is a risk to look for shorts at these levels.
Today is going to be all about the ECB, and it could get a little wild later this afternoon. On days like this always remember to trade what you see!
Important Economic Data out today
- 14:30 EUR Minimum Bid Rate
- 15:30 EUR ECB Press Conference
- 15:30 USD Unemployment Claims
Daily Ranges 08/12/2016
Majors
EURUSD
Resistance 1.0785 – 1.0800
Support 1.0700 – 1.0685
GBPUSD
Resistance 1.2690 – 1.2725
Support 1.2614 – 1.2585
AUDUSD
Resistance 0.7497 – 0.7510
Support 0.7440 – 0.7420
NZDUSD
Resistance 0.7210 – 0.7240
Support 0.7145 – 0.7130
USDCAD
Resistance 1.3272 – 1.3300
Support 1.3200 – 1.3165
USDJPY
Resistance 114.20 – 114.40
Support 113.40 – 113.08
USDCHF
Resistance 1.0097 – 1.0108
Support 1.0048 – 1.0028
Rand
USDZAR
Resistance 13.6500 – 13.6916
Support 13.5000 – 13.4550
EURZAR
Resistance 14.6638 – 14.7162
Support 14.5125 – 14.4695
GBPZAR
Resistance 17.2512 – 17.3108
Support 17.0239 – 17.9545
Minors
AUDCAD
Resistance 0.9913 – 0.9930
Support 0.9865 – 0.9848
AUDJPY
Resistance 85.26 – 85.36
Support 84.70 – 84.48
EURCHF
Resistance 1.0852 – 1.0880
Support 1.0816 – 1.0800
EURGBP
Resistance 0.8538 – 0.8550
Support 0.8480 – 0.8450
EURJPY
Resistance 122.79 – 122.90
Support 121.79 – 121.36
GBPJPY
Resistance 144.30 – 144.80
Support 142.69 – 142.00
GBPCAD
Resistance 1.6819 – 1.6830
Support 1.6720 – 1.6670
GBPCHF
Resistance 1.2775 – 1.2820
Support 1.2705 – 1.2660
CADCHF
Resistance 0.7611 – 0.7618
Support 0.7579 – 0.7550
Indices
DE30
Resistance 11067 – 11100
Support 10778 – 10717
UK100
Resistance 6933 – 7000
Support 6815 – 6781
US500
Resistance 2240 – 2260
Support 2190 – 2180
US30
Resistance 19500 – 19700
Support 19300 – 19000
SA40
Resistance 43461 – 43754
Support 42600 – 42500
Commodities
BRENT
Resistance 54.18 – 54.60
Support 52.58 – 52.00
XAUUSD
Resistance 1180.00 – 1190.20
Support 1165.74 – 1163.00
XAGUSD
Resistance 17.19 – 17.30
Support 16.54 – 16.48
High Risk Investment Warning: Trading foreign exchange and/or contracts for difference on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss in excess of your deposited funds and therefore, you should not speculate with capital that you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to trade the products offered by BlackStone Futures you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin. BlackStone Futures provides general advice that does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. The content of this Website must not be construed as personal advice. BlackStone Futures recommends you seek advice from a separate financial advisor. Please take the time to read our Risk Disclosure Notice.
