Another strong performance from the greenback as the market become more optimistic on a March US interest rate hike. Investors continued their migration into US Treasury yields on the back of it and the market is pricing in an 80% probability of a rate hike in 2 weeks. We have press conferences by both FOMC Member Fischer and Fed Chair Yellen this evening and ultimately they will decide when we see this hike, the market will be all ears, but I still suspect that the first hike will come in May.
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Dean's Daily FX Update – 03 March 2017
In the Zone
- EURUSD
- GBPUSD
- NZDUSD
- USDCAD
- USDJPY
Noteworthy News
- Comments from Le Pen in France is what caught my eye yesterday – “Question is not if we leave the Euro, but when and how” this sort of message could wreak havoc for the EUR.
Recap
The EURUSD flirted with that pivotal 1.0500 level this morning, but the slowing momentum by the sellers is telling in my opinion and we did see a bounce leading into the close. 1.0520 will become the level to watch today, the sellers are hoping for an upbeat Yellen speech to break through 1.0495 and open up to 1.0450. I am generally bearish on this pair because of the political developments but I am not sure today is the day it breaks substantially lower.
Looking at the daily charts, you would be forgiven if you thought that cable took a holiday. The sellers will be hoping that the pair can trade lower than 1.2240 today, a move above 1.2287 will give buyers confidence that we will see a corrective move leading into the weekend.
The USDJPY broke near resistance yesterday and traded all the way to 114.50, this was a previous high and the market immediately took the opportunity to sell the pair there. I suspect that you may see the sellers on mass today and that 114.00 will act as first support, a break lower will open the market for 113.50.
Most pairs today looked primed to correct a little against the dollar today, the only one that I am concerned about is the AUDUSD, it fell below a floor yesterday and it seemed as though the flood gates opened. There is good support sitting at 0.7510 but the sellers are in a confident mood, this is one I would tread cautiously today.
The market will likely brace itself for Fed Yellens speech today, I am of the opinion that the market is waiting on something too much too soon and that they may be disappointed today.
Daily Ranges 03/03/2017
Majors
EURUSD
Resistance 1.0550 – 1.0570
Support 1.0510 – 1.0490
GBPUSD
Resistance 1.2337 – 1.2360
Support 1.2260 – 1.2230
AUDUSD
Resistance 0.7620 – 0.7650
Support 0.7550 – 0.7520
NZDUSD
Resistance 0.7110 – 0.7130
Support 0.7030 – 0.7010
USDCAD
Resistance 1.3380 – 1.3390
Support 1.3320 – 1.3300
USDJPY
Resistance 114.40 – 114.70
Support 113.70 – 113.50
USDCHF
Resistance 1.0130 – 1.0150
Support 1.0090 – 1.0070
Rand
USDZAR
Resistance 13.1425 – 13.1730
Support 13.0360 – 13.0050
EURZAR
Resistance 13.8430 – 13.8680
Support 13.7255 – 13.7000
GBPZAR
Resistance 16.1550 – 16.1870
Support 16.0000 – 15.9780
Minors
AUDCAD
Resistance 1.0200 – 1.0230
Support 1.0100 – 1.0070
AUDJPY
Resistance 87.10 – 87.40
Support 86.20 – 86.00
EURCHF
Resistance 1.0650 – 1.0670
Support 1.0630 – 1.0610
EURGBP
Resistance 0.8580 – 0.8600
Support 0.8535 – 0.8520
EURJPY
Resistance 120.40 – 120.70
Support 119.70 – 119.40
GBPJPY
Resistance 140.50 – 140.70
Support 139.60 – 139.30
GBPCAD
Resistance 1.6450 – 1.6480
Support 1.6360 – 1.6330
GBPCHF
Resistance 1.2445 – 1.2460
Support 1.2400 – 1.2370
Indices
DE30
Resistance 12100 – 12150
Support 11970 – 11950
UK100
Resistance 7390 – 7410
Support 7320 – 7300
US500
Resistance 2400 – 2450
Support 2370 – 2350
US30
Resistance 21150 – 21200
Support 20950 – 20900
SA40
Resistance 44800 – 45000
Support 44200 – 44000
Commodities
BRENT
Resistance 56.70 – 57.00
Support 55.90 – 55.50
XAUUSD
Resistance 1250.00 – 1270.00
Support 1235.00 – 1225.00
XAGUSD
Resistance 18.00 – 18.10
Support 17.70 – 17.30
Important Economic Data out today
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