After a much weaker dollar this week, we started to see some attempt by the dollar to forge a comeback. We have some event risk in the form of the Non-Farm Payroll data out of the US today and I suspect that this data may have more effect on the market than the FOMC. I have been encouraged that a lot of pairs did hold at technical levels yesterday and it reinforces to me that we are on the way to returning to normal market conditions. The forex markets have an ability to brush off anything and it won’t be long before the infamous Donald Trump twitter account bears no weight.
Dean's Daily FX Update – 03 February 2017
In the Zone
- AUDUSD
- USDCAD
- USDJPY
- USDZAR
Noteworthy News
- President Trump stated that the world is in trouble, but we shouldn’t worry because he is going to fix it! This is becoming farcical now!
Recap
The EURUSD still cannot decide in which direction it wants to break, we did have an attempt at the higher levels above 1.0800 yesterday, but it seems as though we are still getting some sellers offering at that 1.0780 level for now. The NFP data this afternoon will be a massive number and it looks to me as though traders are lining up to fade this pair if the data is strong.
Cable has been a very strong performer for the last couple of months, and after much good news filtering through the UK, the market was looking for anything hawkish from BOE Governor Carney. It wasn’t delivered and the GBPUSD fell through the bottom and battled to find a low, it eventually found some support at 1.2500 which is some 200 pips from where the speech started. This reinforces for me the reason I am staying out of sterling for now – for all good news, the market is ready to dump positions on anything remotely negative.
We cover the commodity currencies in more detail in the morning video. We have got through an extremely tough week with our noses in front and today poses yet another tough day with NFP. I am going to stay out of the market today and wait until next week. If you are in the market today, be cautious.
Daily Ranges 03/02/2017
Majors
EURUSD
Resistance 1.0800 – 1.0820
Support 1.0740 – 1.0720
GBPUSD
Resistance 1.2625 – 1.2650
Support 1.2510 – 1.2500
AUDUSD
Resistance 0.7650 – 0.7670
Support 0.7600 – 0.7580
NZDUSD
Resistance 0.7310 – 0.7330
Support 0.7250 – 0.7240
USDCAD
Resistance 1.3050 – 1.3070
Support 1.2990 – 1.2970
USDJPY
Resistance 113.30 – 113.50
Support 112.50 – 112.15
USDCHF
Resistance 0.9940 – 0.9960
Support 0.9880 – 0.9865
Rand
USDZAR
Resistance 13.4550 – 13.4990
Support 13.3420 – 13.3130
EURZAR
Resistance 14.4740 – 14.5220
Support 14.3850 – 14.3300
GBPZAR
Resistance 16.9130 – 16.9400
Support 16.7560 – 16.7050
Minors
AUDCAD
Resistance 0.9980 – 0.9900
Support 0.9900 – 0.9880
AUDJPY
Resistance 86.50 – 86.70
Support 85.70 – 85.50
EURCHF
Resistance 1.0680 – 1.0700
Support 1.0660 – 1.0640
EURGBP
Resistance 0.8590 – 0.8610
Support 0.8520 – 0.8500
EURJPY
Resistance 122.00 – 122.20
Support 121.20 – 121.00
GBPJPY
Resistance 142.80 – 142.90
Support 141.30 – 141.00
GBPCAD
Resistance 1.6440 – 1.6470
Support 1.6310 – 1.6300
GBPCHF
Resistance 1.2530 – 1.2550
Support 1.2430 – 1.2410
Indices
DE30
Resistance 11680 – 11750
Support 11550 – 11470
UK100
Resistance 7140 – 7160
Support 7070 – 7050
US500
Resistance 2280 – 2300
Support 2260 – 2240
US30
Resistance 19900 – 19970
Support 19800 – 19600
SA40
Resistance 46500 – 46700
Support 46000 – 45800
Commodities
BRENT
Resistance 56.90 – 57.20
Support 56.20 – 56.00
XAUUSD
Resistance 1210.00 – 1230.00
Support 1200.00 – 1180.20
XAGUSD
Resistance 17.60 – 17.80
Support 17.20 – 17.10
Important Economic Data out today
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