Welcome to BlackStone Futures - Leading FSB Regulated Forex Broker

01 September 2017- Dean Forex Market Commentary

01 Sep
forex education

01 September 2017- Dean Forex Market Commentary

Did you know: The Forex or FX Market derives its name from Foreign Exchange. It is essentially the exchange of currency (money) between two different countries. The FX market is the largest financial market in the world, and is open 24 hours per day, 5 days per week. Read More – Introduction To The Forex Market

Dean’s Daily FX Update – 01 September 2017

 

In the Zone

  • AUDUSD
  • USDCAD
  • ALSI
  • GOLD
  • OIL

Noteworthy News

  • The Brexit boxing gloves are back on with the UK insisting that the EU will not get the full obligation payment that they were expecting. This could get nasty again.

Recap

As much it tried, the dollar could just not hold onto the momentum that it started on Wednesday. The London session seemed as though it certainly was going to give it a good chance, but there was a late day slump in the dollar, much of the blame came from Mnuchin after his comments that a weaker dollar was better for trade – to be fair to him though, his comments were taken out of context.

After a strong ADP number on Wednesday, the market is bracing for a strong NFP print today but I suspect that there may be a little surprise as traditionally the September NFP is weak (17 of the last 20 years have been poor numbers. The obvious reason is that August is a holiday month in the US and so many people don’t respond including teachers. Regardless, the hurricane in Texas will cloud the landscape for the Fed and the chances of a rate hike in December have already diminished some – down to just 29% a bad reading today could send those odds lower still.

The USDCAD was the big mover yesterday as we saw a really strong GDP print out of Canada, the initial reaction for the USDCAD was to fall by over 100 pips. On closer inspection of the number it seemed even better than we first thought and so the pair strengthened even further and the pair closed almost 200 pips stronger. I suspect that we may get some buyers interested in this level today and I will be keeping a keen eye on this pair.

The EURUSD is at “make or break,” levels this morning, it did manage to break through major support at 1.1900 and eventually spent most the day testing back up to that level again last night. I will be interested to see if this pair fails to break higher, meaning that we have a change of polarity as support becomes resistance. There are rumours out of the ECB that some are starting to get concerned over the strong currency.

As usual the NFP data today should bring it usual drama with it, I have a funny suspicion that the dollar was pricing in a bad read yesterday, today could see a case of “buy the rumour, sell the fact today.”

Keep an eye out for the afternoon video that tries to tie everything together.

Important Economic Data out today

10:30                                     GBP                                       Manufacturing PMI

Consensus:                         55.5

Effect:                                   Actual higher than expected is good for the GBP

 

14:30                                     USD                                       Average Hourly Earnings

Consensus:                         0.2%

Effect:                                   Actual higher than expected is good for the USD

 

14:30                                     USD                                       Non-Farm Employment Change

Consensus:                         180K

Effect:                                   Actual higher than expected is good for the USD

 

14:30                                     USD                                       Unemployment Rate 

Consensus:                         4.3%

Effect:                                   Actual lower than expected is good for the USD

 

16:00                                     USD                                       ISM Manufacturing PMI

Consensus:                         56.5

Effect:                                   Actual higher than expected is good for the USD

High Risk Investment Warning: Trading foreign exchange and/or contracts for difference on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss in excess of your deposited funds and therefore, you should not speculate with capital that you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to trade the products offered by BlackStone Futures you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin. BlackStone Futures provides general advice that does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. The content of this Website must not be construed as personal advice. BlackStone Futures recommends you seek advice from a separate financial advisor. Please take the time to read our Risk Disclosure Notice.

Write a Reply or Comment